tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post6926114732091466848..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: Modelling The Queensland Election Off The Senate Election And PollingKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-24859002595871928622017-11-03T20:15:00.867+11:002017-11-03T20:15:00.867+11:00I think Labor are winning at the moment. Those ads...I think Labor are winning at the moment. Those ads about Campbell Newman are sticking but I think if Labor want a decisive win they need one step more. The LNP are on the back foot though. The LNP advertisement is very bland with them just sitting at the table and really I didn't remember what any of them said because it was a nothing ad. The LNP definitely need to pick up their game because Labor are one more strong advertisement away from a big win.None of your business.https://www.blogger.com/profile/13444688202472114086noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-18854177201528367872017-06-08T09:35:14.228+10:002017-06-08T09:35:14.228+10:00Noosa is an interesting case because the Greens ha...Noosa is an interesting case because the Greens have performed strongly there at state elections but their performance there in the Senate election was not so strong, coming in at about 15% 4PP. Perhaps the area was not as heavily targeted in federal campaigning. Probably at LNP 6.9% it is not marginal enough to make it an easy target for either Labor or Green but it is also worth keeping an eye on.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-44256043185155436172017-06-08T01:36:16.238+10:002017-06-08T01:36:16.238+10:00On the point of Green targets, I wouldn't rule...On the point of Green targets, I wouldn't rule out Noosa, where they have come second the previous two elections. Whilst I doubt they can win, if the Libs get a little too close to One Nation then small l voters could well move away from the libs with One Nation eating away at the Libs and Labor primary votes cementing them in second whilst weakening the Libs primary vote. That being said the Greens could well end up second in Maiwar, which isn't unrealistic. I Doubt their chances in South Brisbane where Trad has quite a reasonable personal vote, in Mcconnel i see them finishing third behind both the LNP and ALP.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12351448744030085941noreply@blogger.com