tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post6645589072589421212..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: EMRS - Greens hit new lowKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-8546375472220502512013-05-25T12:56:08.750+10:002013-05-25T12:56:08.750+10:00Braddon may well yield only a single Labor seat, s...Braddon may well yield only a single Labor seat, so there is going to be a lot on infighting for that vote. The limited response I've seen on social media from the working Labor side is approval for the act, but not yet for the actor. If he backs it up consistently an with action over the next year Best may well win himself his quota, preselected or not.<br /><br />I agree, the fourth spot in any seat is still very long odds. The odds get a lot shorter if the Libs pick up four in the Federal senate this time around.<br /><br /><br /><br />intuitivereasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15444634755480881972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-57660019076647869972013-05-24T20:21:28.161+10:002013-05-24T20:21:28.161+10:00Four seats is in theory possible with a 3PP vote o...Four seats is in theory possible with a 3PP vote of around 62. For instance Liberal 62 Labor 27 Green 11 (which is actually almost identical to my "uneven swing" model projection for Bass). Preferences flow weakly across parties when the last candidate from either Labor or the Greens is excluded. But to get four with those numbers the Liberals would have to get very lucky on the distribution of votes among their candidates (so as to minimise leakage losses). <br /><br />There is one precedent of sorts; in 1992 the Liberals polled 65.7% to Labor's 20.8% and the Greens 8.8% in Braddon, which would have easily won the Liberals four out of five. But that was off a base of 57.5% from the previous election, whereas this time the base is only 45.2% in Braddon and 42.6% in Bass. Also that was with a team of four incumbents (they won five seats out of seven) whereas this time they only have two in each seat.<br /><br />It's something that polling has been pointing to as possible on and off over the last eighteen months - it would still be rather surprising if it happened, and less surprising if the Libs just overkilled all of Bass, Braddon and Lyons with only one extra seat to show for their troubles in each. <br /><br />After the last two days the Best factor could be an extra complication in Braddon. <br /><br />Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-60160362753190248082013-05-24T15:31:03.219+10:002013-05-24T15:31:03.219+10:00If the variation across the state has increased, B...If the variation across the state has increased, Bass and Braddon are the likely recipients of the increased vote (although an increase in Lyons cannot be discounted).<br /><br />For that to have any chance of an effect on the seat outcome, it would have to see the Liberal 3PP vote increase to somewhere in the order of 65%, which I would have thought unlikely even in Braddon.<br /><br />Then again, with the growing unrest up that way regarding the so called 'Tarkine', it might be possible.intuitivereasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15444634755480881972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-28048316045461793352013-05-21T19:19:24.421+10:002013-05-21T19:19:24.421+10:00Agreed, its irritating to see polling used as a se...Agreed, its irritating to see polling used as a self-fulfilling prophecy by commercial media as well. The only direct spotlight on the credibility of the poll that I heard all day came from the ABC, while the rest of the narrative was "Liberals winning, Greens smashed!"Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07185759634481391960noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-2777116372676765042013-05-21T18:20:28.209+10:002013-05-21T18:20:28.209+10:00Bernard's response - just saying that the clai...Bernard's response - just saying that the claimed level of undecided voters is just not credible - was good. Of course, 30% is not the "real" undecided figure (since someone who offers a party when prodded is actually intending to vote for that party; they're just not "sure" enough to cough up that view immediately) but 19% as a figure for those not even leaning to a party or to other is still just too high. <br /><br />Wish I knew what was causing it but I don't. My guesses would be it's not about question methods, but rather about either staff skills in coaxing an answer or else pressure on staff to complete interviews at a certain rate.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-20109531787824300232013-05-21T12:56:58.682+10:002013-05-21T12:56:58.682+10:00EMRS has become a sideshow. When Leon Compton put ...EMRS has become a sideshow. When Leon Compton put the 30% undecided figure to Bernard Keane this morning, he had to catch himself from laughing.<br />Anecdotally I do think that there would be a larger undecided number at present than we would normally expect, however. Large numbers of people are telling me the same basic story; they're sick of Labor, (I read that as the old "its time for a change" mentality combined with perceptions of impropriety over a long period), but the Liberals offer nothing but old politics and negativity. The Greens don't appear to get much of a mention, love nor hate, outside of people associated with mining. I'm not sure what that implies for them, I can see the potential damage to their core voter base as you said, but I can see people considering them as a progressive vote without union attachment.<br /><br />But as I said, all anecdotal.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07185759634481391960noreply@blogger.com