tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post6618119197225235783..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: Wentworth By-Election: Prospects And PollsKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-73925573902199143852018-10-17T10:18:18.009+11:002018-10-17T10:18:18.009+11:00As of this morning phelps is slighty lower odds th...As of this morning phelps is slighty lower odds tha liberal on sportsbet and ladbrokes.<br /><br />Ladbrokes independent 1.65, liberal 1.90Foohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02444693774790165427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-58129284271771561792018-10-13T21:03:30.817+11:002018-10-13T21:03:30.817+11:00Had some debate with him on Twitter about it too. ...Had some debate with him on Twitter about it too. Only the second time I've ever engaged with the guy and I remember being unimpressed in exactly the same way the first time.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-57470947152562712402018-10-13T20:57:55.314+11:002018-10-13T20:57:55.314+11:00Can anyone pinpoint for me when Joe Hildebrand bec...Can anyone pinpoint for me when Joe Hildebrand became relevant in the Australian political landscape? I'm really struggling to work that one out.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02537910486414527809noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-18144894551278010852018-09-18T00:11:06.566+10:002018-09-18T00:11:06.566+10:00Yes the LDP vote is a part of it. Statewide the L...Yes the LDP vote is a part of it. Statewide the LDP shed 6.41 points (6.94 in Wentworth). The Coalition ticket gained only 1.65 points statewide however (but generally gained more in areas where One Nation were less successful). Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-64763982424412374332018-09-17T23:38:42.060+10:002018-09-17T23:38:42.060+10:00In the section on Turnbull's primary vote you ...In the section on Turnbull's primary vote you mention an 11% increase in the Coalition Senate vote between 2013 and 2016. 2013 was the year of the LDP swindle in NSW so that 11% is coming off an artificially low baseline. I suspect this anomaly affected all NSW Coalition MPs in 2013?SgtThursdayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05024564684767917440noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-17537449610335916302018-09-17T17:31:59.076+10:002018-09-17T17:31:59.076+10:00Ta, that is correct; it was meant to say "don...Ta, that is correct; it was meant to say "don't lose". Fixed.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-28130407196064836722018-09-17T17:00:35.220+10:002018-09-17T17:00:35.220+10:00Hi Kevin,
Good article. You write, "While I&...Hi Kevin,<br /><br />Good article. You write, "While I've seen some spinning suggesting that a double-digit swing should be viewed as a shocker for the Liberal Party even if they lose the seat.." <br />Do you mean '...even if they WIN the seat'? Cheers.Mrodowiczhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10309857141858615026noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-52731907157792113122018-09-15T18:21:44.672+10:002018-09-15T18:21:44.672+10:00labor campaign and 4% general labor swing this sea...labor campaign and 4% general labor swing this seat could go very close<br />Mickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02784376200127303021noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-20481443264966954772018-09-15T18:20:12.194+10:002018-09-15T18:20:12.194+10:002010 to 2016.....the liberal vote has improved 10 ...2010 to 2016.....the liberal vote has improved 10 to 12% 2pp....Paddington should be narrowly labour 51/52 % it votes very similar to the Edgecliff area...a simila4 situation applies to Bondi, Bronte, Clovelly, Waverley... this is Turnbulls personal vote which is gone now.... with a more energetic Mickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02784376200127303021noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-89254876188078147352018-09-15T10:33:17.655+10:002018-09-15T10:33:17.655+10:00An excellent article, Kevin.
In the para about in...An excellent article, Kevin.<br /><br />In the para about in the Candidate Factor section about Tim Murray, there seems to be a bit missing:<br /><br />" ... to win the 2PP. Murray also has However, as ..."<br /><br />David.<br /><br />dedwardshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11754130418220136533noreply@blogger.com