tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post6410596842084252957..comments2024-03-17T21:29:12.457+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: State Liberal Conference Attacks Hare-Clark SystemKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-73633880710152462942014-10-19T23:10:37.811+11:002014-10-19T23:10:37.811+11:00I'm guessing that what she is getting at is ju...I'm guessing that what she is getting at is just that a common argument against single-seat systems in Tasmania is that the electorates would be too small, with about 13,000 votes in each. So if someone has a preference for the single seat system but is concerned about electorate size, they might say that if Tasmania's population reaches, say, 800,000, then it might be time to go over to single-seat.<br /><br />Of course if someone has a preference for Hare-Clark then there is indeed no such thing as too many people, because you can just keep adding more electorates, as you point out, and thereby get around any problems associated with highly-populated Hare-Clark electorates (at the cost only of having more politicians). <br /><br />I took the comment as an attempt to be seen as appealling to both sides of the debate.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-70898514112676730802014-10-19T17:41:46.790+11:002014-10-19T17:41:46.790+11:00I agree!
Although I don't have a clue what O...I agree! <br /><br />Although I don't have a clue what O'Byrne could mean when she says "There may be a point where the Tasmanian population is large enough that you would move to single-member electorates - I don't think we're there yet."<br /><br />What's wrong with keeping Hare-Clark?<br /><br />Adding more members per electorate as the population grows would be helpful for more accurate results, but I can see there would be a limit to that before you get crowded ballot papers. The solution is obvious: If the population grows, you just add more electorates! That would happen automatically anyway since the state divisions reflect the Federal HoR seats. More Federal seats, more State divisions under the same excellent system.<br /><br />So what on Earth is she talking about?PhoenixGreenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05319816162885158733noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-85866650437747319752014-10-16T20:33:57.696+11:002014-10-16T20:33:57.696+11:00Yes it would be pretty close to a clean sweep but ...Yes it would be pretty close to a clean sweep but Labor would win a few. Likewise if the 2002 result was converted to single-seat the result would have been something like 23 Labor 2 Green and the Libs would have got nothing.<br /><br />I haven't spent any time running an accurate simulation on this, because such extreme results as 2002 and 2014 wouldn't actually happen in a single seat system. They result from swings being amplified (or at times, as in 2006, reduced) by a subset of voters voting for whichever party can win majority government. Under a single-seat system this would be a non-issue and most of the time these voters would vote for whichever major party they had a slight leaning to. We might still get these sorts of 58-60 2PP thrashings every now and then, but not every third election. We wouldn't see this swaying pattern where every decade or so a quarter of the voters move from one side to the other (then next decade back again.)Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-33540746053266702322014-10-16T20:09:44.133+11:002014-10-16T20:09:44.133+11:00Do you have any estiamate on what the results woul...Do you have any estiamate on what the results would be under single-member electorates? It looks like it would be an almost-clean sweep of the state by the Liberals (a few Labor members might get elected in Denison). Henry Schlechtahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10010058958980876585noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-38275801698200822082014-10-16T18:39:11.293+11:002014-10-16T18:39:11.293+11:00In terms of delivering representation, the Hare-Cl...In terms of delivering representation, the Hare-Clark system does exceptionally well. As you have mentioned, it also does a very good job of culling weaker candidates, both independent and within the parties.<br /><br />Delivering stable government, well not so much. What it really needs is a fourth party to provide some balance, and the numbers necessary to see such. <br /><br />Yes, there are a couple of technical issues that have been thrashed to death in the Senate debate that could be addressed. But as a working system for a House of Representatives, it is basically unmatched.<br /><br />Basically, its the combination of representation with the executive that causes all the issues.<br /><br />intuitivereasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15444634755480881972noreply@blogger.com