tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post621881979865224429..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: SA Election: Libs Fall Short Of Majority, Again!Kevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-2116168756820297392014-03-20T17:51:28.050+11:002014-03-20T17:51:28.050+11:00Yes my expectation was the Liberals might be able ...Yes my expectation was the Liberals might be able to get more of a correction than this from what happened in 2010.<br /><br />They did get more swings in marginals but the swings were often too small, any corellation between swing and marginality was not that steep.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-26454322622362144022014-03-20T13:00:55.680+11:002014-03-20T13:00:55.680+11:00Quote from Kevin: "The funny thing is that in...Quote from Kevin: "The funny thing is that in one respect the Liberals were successful in managing the swing. In their own seats (few if any of which were in danger, despite murmurs about Adelaide) the net swing was about zero while in Labor held-seats it is currently running at about 1.3% (and more or less static on average from the most to the least marginal). "<br /><br />Depending on how you view it, you could argue that the Liberals did even better than this at getting the swings in the right seats. According to the current ABC swing figures, there were 10 seats with margins less than 4% against the Liberals (9 Labor and 1 Ind). In 9 out of 10 of these seats the swing was to Liberal with Ashford being the odd one out. However in the 10 safest seats in the state (margins over 16% prior to the election) the swing was to the ALP in 6 of these seats. So the Liberals actually did well in terms of getting the swings to go in their direction in the marginals, but the swings weren't strong enough to get them over the line.<br /><br />Or possibly this is just a correction from 2010 when comparatively too much Liberal effort was placed in the safe seats?<br />Ekigozanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12835215309657644433noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-12953315368185149752014-03-19T19:35:49.192+11:002014-03-19T19:35:49.192+11:00Thanks Kevin for all your efforts and comments in ...Thanks Kevin for all your efforts and comments in regard to South Australia. Always outstanding observations. I can tell you one thing, Kevin, that not too many public servants voted Liberal in SA last Saturday. People have observed what has happened to the public service in the other states and I know in my workplace many people changed their votes from Liberal to Labor, especially in regard to job security and penalty rates. The SA public service is the most aged in the country and workers were terrified of ending their last few pre-retirement years on the dole. I hope the Independents back Labor!BRENTONhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05209051549953833708noreply@blogger.com