tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post5917602995870326355..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: Tasmania 2018: But What Does It All Mean?Kevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger21125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-42245480763121321922018-03-13T16:51:02.733+11:002018-03-13T16:51:02.733+11:00I take your points, Kevin, but I think you're ...I take your points, Kevin, but I think you're glossing over the fact that addiction is ancillary to those other things you've mentioned - drinking, smartphones, even horse-racing (at a stretch) can stand alone as a form of entertainment. Addiction is a risk inherent in doing (or betting on) those things.<br /><br />Pokies are there purely to get people hooked on playing them. They are addiction-by-design. There is literally no other purpose to them. Most people who use pokies don't get hooked, but an alarmingly large percentage (20%, depending on who you listen to) of people do. Even if that estimate is on the high side it is still an extraordinary strike rate.<br /><br />As I said, it's possible that these issues could have been addressed by tighter regulation and better assistance services. I just think a ban is better than no action at all.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14568458859982364845noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-62052455946392528122018-03-09T08:36:51.754+11:002018-03-09T08:36:51.754+11:00Thanks, just a typo, fixed.Thanks, just a typo, fixed.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-31313580925832046572018-03-09T00:03:44.873+11:002018-03-09T00:03:44.873+11:00"The Greens are currently on 10.03%, though t..."The Greens are currently on 10.03%, though there is a fair chance that absent and other remaining votes will lift them just above their worst-ever score of 10.18% (1989)."<br /><br />That should be 1998 rather than 1989. The Greens did very well in 1989, winning over 17%.Mrodowiczhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10309857141858615026noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-66434118950386569822018-03-08T18:34:24.470+11:002018-03-08T18:34:24.470+11:00That should certainly be dealt with. There is no ...That should certainly be dealt with. There is no reason the things should be allowed to be open very late at night. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-43041097640997951942018-03-08T18:07:58.248+11:002018-03-08T18:07:58.248+11:00The hours that pokies venues are open is of some r...The hours that pokies venues are open is of some relevance. The Elwick in Glenorchy has a poker machine lounge that stops serving alcohol but remains open well after that, possibly as late as 4AM and re-opens at 9AM. This targets people with an addiction. I really doubt people are playing for a bit of light amusement at 9:30 on a Tuesday morning. I think that needs looking at, at the very least. Andrewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13641375259423351921noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-1157960138084583892018-03-08T15:05:32.210+11:002018-03-08T15:05:32.210+11:00I think the "freedom to play pokies isn't...I think the "freedom to play pokies isn't truly taken away if they are available at casinos" line is the weakest line used by the anti-pokies campaigners and is nearly as bad as some of those used by pro-pokies campaigners. Try telling that, for instance, to a pensioner in Burnie who doesn't drive and whose nearest casino is in Launceston. Getting to and from the casino will probably cost her more than she will lose on the pokies. Even if one doesn't see this as compromising her freedom to play the pokies fullstop, it takes away her pre-existing freedom to play them in her area. Whether she should have that freedom is another question.<br /><br />Pokies do have addictive design components but nowhere near everyone who uses them becomes addicted. There are plenty of other designs that use lures to hook people in and keep them hooked - this even includes the design of social media platforms. People become addicted to smartphones to the extent that they use them while driving and crash. Ban or very heavily restrict social media? Ditto smartphones? Ditto alcohol? I don't think the fact that some people become addicted to something is generally reason to ban it or very heavily restrict it for everyone else. I think it's more a reason to look, at a first resort, at how addictive features can be regulated to minimise harm and consumer education and warnings increased. Also, the interplay between pokie use and alcohol needs to be addressed.<br /><br />There's no freedom once someone gets addicted? Sure, unless the addiction is fixed. But that's irrelevant when it comes to users who don't get addicted. <br /><br />Sure, less educated people are more likely to get hooked, but they're also more likely to genuinely enjoy the product (this also applies to much less addictive forms of luck-based gambling too). <br /><br />As I've mentioned before, I think pokies are junk; I can't relate to the desire to play the things at all. But if I dismiss some people's freedom to play the pokies lightly then I invite the same approach to whatever I enjoy. I'd rather defend someone's freedom to do something I can't relate to than give the impression - rampant across the whole of Australian politics - that only the freedoms one's own side values matter. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-26310729451994240782018-03-08T11:15:49.730+11:002018-03-08T11:15:49.730+11:00I agree, Rowan. I got the impression Labor genuin...I agree, Rowan. I got the impression Labor genuinely believed that removing pokies from pubs and clubs would be in the State's best interest. There are some very good economic arguments in favour of doing so but they didn't get that message across well enough (it was always going to be a challenge).<br /><br />As for the personal freedoms argument kevin, I'm not that sold. There always has to be a line drawn somewhere between personal freedoms and the wellbeing of society; the argument is about where the line is drawn.<br /><br />Pokies are an interesting topic in that regard because I think there is a very good argument that they are designed to take away, or at least push to one side, freedom of choice, in the sense that they rely upon creating compulsive users in order to be profitable. Once someone is hooked, freedom doesn't come into it.<br /><br />There's a good reason these things are restricted to casinos in most other developed nations. Speaking of which, freedom to play pokies isn't truly taken away if they are available at casinos.<br /><br />They are also concentrated in lower socio-economic areas, the supposed rationale being that less educated people are more likely to get hooked. I don't know just how much more likely, but it's a truly awful concept.<br /><br />Possibly these issues could have been addressed by less extreme regulatory measures. Still, a ban would have been better for the state than no action at all.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14568458859982364845noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-88594470326998335442018-03-07T16:48:11.948+11:002018-03-07T16:48:11.948+11:00Really chris. Why did all the signatories of the T...Really chris. Why did all the signatories of the TFA - the Unions and major forestry industry players - arch enemies of the environmental movement - stick with the agreement, and pleaded with the Liberals to honor it, including in front of Leg Co committies, well after the Liberals 2014 election win? Were the Greens dictating their views even after their defeat from government? hmmm I don't think so. I am amazed at how many people believe greens and Greens dictate the states economic progress and development, on everything. They are a convenient scapegoats for the establishments incompetence... Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-9605766716383320242018-03-07T15:30:50.760+11:002018-03-07T15:30:50.760+11:00@Matt I think if you scarctch below the surface yo...@Matt I think if you scarctch below the surface you will find politics, particularly green tinged ones, the primary driver behind the Forest Agreement. Gillard had done a deal with Brown to extend theTWWHA in return for support. This was a major driver behind TFA outcomes - much more than ever reported in the media. Local Greens were in on it too. CWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09144444924702608932noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-46081647193702148482018-03-07T08:34:40.593+11:002018-03-07T08:34:40.593+11:00Surely the collapse of Labor and Green support aft...Surely the collapse of Labor and Green support after the 2014 election was due in most part to the GFC induced recession which was a short-term thing anyway... and people's perception it was the fault of the Greens for the cutbacks and decline in economic activity, with Labor getting hit equally hard by those circumstances. The Tasmania Forest Agreement was largely independent from politics too although I can see it would have created an unstable atmosphere in that sector whilst the talks about the long term future of the industry was ongoing. The idea that the Greens cause problems when in government doesn't wash with me but its become a clever mythology since 2010 ramped up by conservative politics and certain business interests. I agree that the Greens ran a terrible campaign, bad candidates, no focus, poor presentation from the top. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-35925265423700414082018-03-06T23:20:30.242+11:002018-03-06T23:20:30.242+11:00There's no button - Tasmanian House of Assembl...There's no button - Tasmanian House of Assembly elections are still done manually. There will be updates to the primary figures, expected on Wednesday and Friday, then through next week there will be a distribution of preferences running from Tuesday to Thursday or Friday. In the past these distributions have been updated frequently so we can follow them online by checking for new figures every few hours. <br /><br />Tasmanian local council elections now use data entry with a button press (at least, about half did in 2014; not sure if it will be upscaled to all this year.)<br /><br />Yes the Senate is a similar thing. The Tasmanian Greens Senate vote tends to ebb and flow on a similar sort of basis to their state vote. At the 2016 Senate election in Tasmania their vote was harmed by competition from Labor Senator Lisa Singh. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-85975512039788595622018-03-06T22:50:01.956+11:002018-03-06T22:50:01.956+11:00Hi Kevin
Thanks for your insights. This is the fi...Hi Kevin<br /><br />Thanks for your insights. This is the first time I've followed a Tasmanian election and I was wondering whether there will be updates over the next few days or whether we have to wait until they push the big red button (presuming there is a button and it is, in fact, red). <br /><br />Also wondering whether the crash in the Greens vote has Federal Senate parallels? They've lost more than half their vote in two cycles and their haemorrhaging votes in the Senate as well. Its particularly bad in SA, where more than half their vote seems to have gone to Xenophon. Given that on his best day he's a wet Liberal, I'm not sure what that says about the strength and resilience of their vote. Granthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08022638348673573172noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-33068087575097259562018-03-06T22:44:39.236+11:002018-03-06T22:44:39.236+11:00Greens do tend to be as inflexible as a steel bar ...Greens do tend to be as inflexible as a steel bar on environmental issues. Very ideological. There is a strange similarity between Bob Brown, Eric Abetz and Christine Milne. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13140395010386651393noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-78015223546319124252018-03-06T22:31:18.509+11:002018-03-06T22:31:18.509+11:00The problems in Tasmania tend to stem from there b...The problems in Tasmania tend to stem from there being environmental issues on which the major parties agree with each other but the Greens don't agree with either, and these issues being very important to the Greens support base. I suspect this problem doesn't arise in the ACT not only because the ACT doesn't have those issues but also because the ACT has a different range of ALP voters. Independents as supporters of minority governments tend to have desires that major parties can work with without burning off their support bases.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-65288831850204560902018-03-06T22:17:18.197+11:002018-03-06T22:17:18.197+11:00There are certainly lots of ways of reducing the d...There are certainly lots of ways of reducing the damage from poker machines without banning them, and many of these ways respect the freedom issue for those not addicted. <br />I find it interesting that Tasmania has the problems it does with minority/coalition government. Victoria, NSW and SA seem to manage OK when there are minority situations. Gillard managed her minority government pretty well in terms of getting things done, though the media were hysterical about it. With Hare-Clark you have to expect minority Government most of the time, and in the ACT it works OK having an agreement between the ALP and the Greens with regard to how the Government works. This time we in the ACT have a Green as a Minister. I suspect the fact that the ACT is almost entirely urban makes it easier for us.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13140395010386651393noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-18254385856700863782018-03-06T14:51:08.846+11:002018-03-06T14:51:08.846+11:00I'm not an expert in this area but I know stud...I'm not an expert in this area but I know studies in the US on things like corflute visibility have found it very difficult to prove a link between certain aspects of campaign spending and success. There is also a lot of cynicism about whether TV advertising is actually still effective - at all. I suspect the difficulty in proving how effective campaign spending is comes partly from the fact that a dud message can't be sold whatever you spend on it, but that doesn't stop people trying. Tasmania federal 2016 - Liberals carpeted the countryside with signs to no effect.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-82856637207175409122018-03-06T14:47:54.078+11:002018-03-06T14:47:54.078+11:00It is right to do *something* - and something more...It is right to do *something* - and something more than token - about pokie proliferation and its consequences. But if Labor's decision was based on a belief that this particular solution and not some different solution that showed even passing respect for personal freedom concerns was right, how did they come to that decision? I addressed this briefly in a previous article (http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/tasmania-2018-commissioned-pokies.html) - a decision may be "evidence-based" (in the term of this policy being the best way to achieve a stated desired outcome) but when that label is invoked in ignorance of a philosophical dimension, you get problems.<br /><br />There is a saying that politics is the art of the possible. Some things might be desirable but unachievable and it's harder to make the state a better place to live from Opposition.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-88997221230094750852018-03-06T13:48:50.134+11:002018-03-06T13:48:50.134+11:00I think you're missing a rationale for the ant...I think you're missing a rationale for the anti-pokies policy there.. that they actually believed (because they broke from tradition and looked at evidence rather than a pile of cash delivered to their party room) that it was the right thing to do! Not adequately selling the evidence to the public is of course still a failing politically.<br /><br />Surely you're not suggesting that the only job of politicians is just to follow what's tracking well in the polls and never take a lead on making the state/country a better place to live?<br /><br />I'd love to see much stronger laws akin to the legislative council on donations and corporate spending - it might help focus discussion on policy differences and less on billboard slogans.Rowanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16940089068502559209noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-15219266155030468422018-03-06T13:47:56.523+11:002018-03-06T13:47:56.523+11:00Fantastic summary. As I read it, your advice for t...Fantastic summary. As I read it, your advice for the Greens would be as follows:<br />1. Focus on issues where Lib/Lab are in lock-step<br />2. Be more fresh and exciting<br />3. Be open about the pros *and cons* of hung parliaments (and what you'd do to try and improve the latter) and don't talk about them more than you have toDamienhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04655740977934962025noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-33467964082714265292018-03-06T13:22:11.902+11:002018-03-06T13:22:11.902+11:00Thanks Kevin. I'm wondering whether there are ...Thanks Kevin. I'm wondering whether there are any data available that shed light on conjecture around the dollar value of advertising and its voting outcomes? Thinking the Howard Family Bonuses, Big Pokie etc.?danehunneruphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17182121868690505593noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-34201634176954540292018-03-06T12:44:13.709+11:002018-03-06T12:44:13.709+11:00Labor ran a poor campaign on a lot of things, the ...Labor ran a poor campaign on a lot of things, the pokies being at the top plus having a leader who has only been in the job for 12 months or so and a lack of incumbents. Also a thing that doesn't seem to be factored in is that in areas of Tasmania there is a visceral hatred of the Greens. Due to this the hang over from the 2010 deal between Labor and Greens still persists. The slightest whiff of another of those just turn people off Labor and until they expunge the electorates memories of that will continue to struggle.Barryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08664699802718952449noreply@blogger.com