tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post5739105307443761958..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: SA Election: Some General Modelling CommentsKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-22840021892287060542018-03-17T10:47:26.351+11:002018-03-17T10:47:26.351+11:00I haven't got federal Reps figures for those s...I haven't got federal Reps figures for those seats but if you apply the difference between the 2014 2PP and the federal 2PP to them then yes.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-11311330445019825392018-03-17T10:20:42.200+11:002018-03-17T10:20:42.200+11:00On federal figures would labor win Dunstan and Ade...On federal figures would labor win Dunstan and Adelaide?Mickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02784376200127303021noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-66762119361230515702018-03-14T12:21:41.195+11:002018-03-14T12:21:41.195+11:00Oh, my bad. Nonetheless, that's a huge 2PP to ...Oh, my bad. Nonetheless, that's a huge 2PP to have without taking government.Kasey Brownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17183320601719206423noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-44759935839902516032018-03-14T12:16:29.193+11:002018-03-14T12:16:29.193+11:00It was 53-47 last time.It was 53-47 last time.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-76882011461316302352018-03-14T12:04:32.144+11:002018-03-14T12:04:32.144+11:00In theory, one would assume that it'd be a lit...In theory, one would assume that it'd be a little bit easier for the ALP to get a swing of 2-3% in South Australia, than anywhere else - simply due to the enormous 2PP win the Liberals got last time, 55-45, and still lost. I hear your point though.Kasey Brownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17183320601719206423noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-35667674360960850112018-03-14T01:12:00.611+11:002018-03-14T01:12:00.611+11:00I suspect using 2016 Senate data to model SABest v...I suspect using 2016 Senate data to model SABest votes/preferences this election is not very useful for a number of related reasons: 1) 2016 Senate was essentially a vote for Nick Xenophon himself who has broad appeal across the state - in this election people will be voting for a loose coalition of very diverse candidates. 2) These candidates come from both sides of politics and hence will be targeting different demographics and face different issues in each seat 3) The Briggs factor which inflated the Mayo 2016 NXT vote is no longer relevant, hence I suspect the SABest vote in Mayo seats has been overestimated for this election 4) The amount of resources SABest are putting into different seats appears to be very variable and I suspect many booths in seats they aren't targeting hard won't have any SABest presence on Saturday 5) Local issues will be a much bigger factor in many seats. eg the SABest candidate in Schubert is hardly known at all in that seat (he is from Kangaroo Island) so will presumably poll quite low, while I suspect the good SABest performance in the Taylor poll was in part a protest vote against Vlahos/Oakden since that was her seat. Hence that poll result may not be much help in predicting other northern suburbs seats.Ekigozanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12835215309657644433noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-23079763570220405252018-03-13T19:04:26.052+11:002018-03-13T19:04:26.052+11:00There has now been a poll released for Hartley and...There has now been a poll released for Hartley and other seats. This puts Tarzia ahead of Xenophon 51-49 but is probably not worth much. A bit more surprising, but again maybe worthless, is that the SA Best candidate for the safe Labor seat of Taylor, Sonja Taylor, is also only trailing 51-49. Probably only means that there is an extra seat to add to what on earth is happening list of seats.<br />Anecdotal evidence from Heysen is that the Liberal candidate has been adding a large amount of posters to already large amount so might think he is in trouble.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-8449054497042156012018-03-12T21:27:06.852+11:002018-03-12T21:27:06.852+11:00I live in Hartley and have literally been polled 1...I live in Hartley and have literally been polled 15-20 times over the past few months, sometimes twice on the same night via both home and mobile phone. I also know people who are deliberately giving bogus answers to polls as they are sick of being asked so often. So not sure how much that affects the validity of poll results. In any case, interesting that Tarzia's odds have moved from $10 to $1.85 over the past month despite no poll results being released publicly. So either some people have strong gut feels or they are confident in the results on polls that haven't been made public. Ekigozanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12835215309657644433noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-88121693176947167412018-03-10T13:17:11.009+11:002018-03-10T13:17:11.009+11:00I think the markets are factoring an apparently hi...I think the markets are factoring an apparently high chance of a hung parliament and the apparent likelihood of that resulting in a Labor minority government with SAB support.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-20411735001687932862018-03-10T12:33:22.632+11:002018-03-10T12:33:22.632+11:00usually any Government is lucky to make it past 3 ...usually any Government is lucky to make it past 3 terms......the problem with sa is that alp, sa best and the libs are each on 25% to 33% on a state wide basis....this probably means all will win seats......the change in boundaries means labor needs a swing of 2 to 3% to win in theory<br />also it appears that sa best is losing votes..... what will they do with Balance of power if they have it? also what if Mr X is not elected....so the band decides without the bank leader?<br /> Mickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02784376200127303021noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-779084895786709252018-03-10T11:55:19.820+11:002018-03-10T11:55:19.820+11:00Hmmmmmm... Intriguing...
Two particularly intri...Hmmmmmm... Intriguing... <br /><br />Two particularly intriguing things. First, Newspoll's hamfisted "explanation" of the 21% or 27% for SAB. If the average punter is asked "who do you intend to vote for?" I wonder how many think "Hmmm I'd like to vote for the Xenos but they don't have a candidate in my seat so I'd better not say that"? Without knowing that you can't begin to make a correction! <br /><br />Secondly, Alex Jago's numbers show that there is surprisingly litle variation from seat to seat in the Xeno vote. Whereas Lib and Lab support both vary from 17 or 19 to 51 or 52, presumably depending on the traditional factors such as wealth, self-identification by social class, employment status, or youthful desire for change versus senile fear of it, the Xenos are in the 20s in nearly all seats, with a few low 30s, and a 34, 35, 37 and 38. What makes a Xeno voter? I suppose disillusion with both major parties and finding their combativeness tiring, but is there anything else? And what explains their almost uniform distribution, with peaks in Finnis, Kavel and Heysen? PhD students, get your grant applications ready! <br /><br />My prediction - Lab to get more seats than the Libs, and Xeno to get anything between none and 30! Alright, trying to be a bit more definite, anything between say 4 and 18. Nothing will surprise me.Jack Arandahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06210027164177789357noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-23770699404217039432018-03-10T11:46:53.761+11:002018-03-10T11:46:53.761+11:00I'm curious here, the betting markets seem to ...I'm curious here, the betting markets seem to have the ALP favoured, do you think this is fair?<br /><br />From where I'm sitting there are just too many variables to know for sure, from the SA Best preference flows, to the age of the ALP government, to the seats they need to win (and retain) to win the election seem to be pointing towards if not a minor Liberal edge, at the very least 50:50, down the line.<br /><br />If you think it's an apt description of the status of South Australia, could you give a bit of an explanation? Thank you! Kasey Brownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17183320601719206423noreply@blogger.com