tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post4860366965664278795..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: Rolling Poll Roundup: Early Morrison PollsKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-28415739189965914042018-08-31T11:02:20.975+10:002018-08-31T11:02:20.975+10:00key interest of Wentworth is what happens to the 1...key interest of Wentworth is what happens to the 12% add on to Turnbulls vote from 2010 onwards...… this seems to have stayed...… a 60% vote in the marginal areas seems much inflated in a good time this could vote 55% alp....this seat is a liberal seat but not with 18% marginMickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02784376200127303021noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-73344323151209547362018-08-29T20:44:08.424+10:002018-08-29T20:44:08.424+10:00Kevin, I am doing regular poll aggregations in the...Kevin, I am doing regular poll aggregations in the first days of the Morrison Government. The latest can be seen here: https://marktheballot.blogspot.com/ Mark Graphhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10462713733051104779noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-45825350443709868412018-08-29T15:53:23.374+10:002018-08-29T15:53:23.374+10:00I thought Newspoll would have waited another week....I thought Newspoll would have waited another week. If they polled Friday, some respondents would not even have known that the leadership had been resolved. It would be expected that polls for the government would be much, much worse during / very close to the "in-limbo" period of the actual challenge. In making the comparisons between the polling effects, it could therefore be important to know the time that elapsed from the leadership change and the polling in the earlier leadership changes.<br /><br />I find it interesting that those selecting Turnbull as their choice of Liberal leader also fell away very sharply once he was removed in a couple of the Polls. 14% nominating him as preferred leader within a couple days of removal would appear to belie his supposed appeal to non-government voters, who I would have thought would have rallied to his cause given the nature of his removal. There was also suprisingly high support for the leadership change.. 35% in Essential and similar in the Reachtel seat polls... especially given the very messy nature of his removal. Opposition of only 40% in Essential and mid-50's in Reachtel is hardly overwhelming and adds credence to the need for caution with these very early (too early!) polls. Peterjk23https://www.blogger.com/profile/10996843671233378706noreply@blogger.com