tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post4826778515037677385..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: Recent State Election Polling Does Not Skew To LaborKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-52685667949447183722021-05-17T14:59:07.386+10:002021-05-17T14:59:07.386+10:00I wonder if there would actually be a significant ...I wonder if there would actually be a significant skew against Labor in state election polling, once you toss in WA 2021 (+3.7%).Ethanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07226942488996369403noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-83211012415472475552020-11-17T10:44:03.129+11:002020-11-17T10:44:03.129+11:00I'd be interested to hear from pollsters if an...I'd be interested to hear from pollsters if and when they changed methodology for the Federal polling in response to the 2018 Victorian miss. Up until that point, Australian polling had been very smug with its accurate record especially in comparison to the Trump and Brexit polling misses overseas. The Campbell Newman miss could be explained through a miss on preferencing behaviour as you say. But the 2018 Victorian miss was simply a huge miss, and one wonders if that led pollsters to an overcorrection.<br /><br />I don't buy the story of a decade long bias to the ALP in the polls at all. Across that many years, pollsters, demographic changes and technology changes the idea of some consistent background skew to either party is ludicrous and the numbers as you say don't bear it out either. Arkyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07657579577532223814noreply@blogger.com