tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post4672637165137249936..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: ReachTEL - State Labor Back To The LifeboatsKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-32883309253765138822013-06-19T13:21:49.691+10:002013-06-19T13:21:49.691+10:00Green outright opposition (would most likely be 6-...Green outright opposition (would most likely be 6-5 rather than 6-4 if it happened) - extremely unlikely in my view.<br /><br />Equal seat numbers (15-5-5) - a realistic outside chance.<br /><br />The ReachTEL figures do show the Greens close to a second seat in Denison and not that far from holding Braddon. However I do not believe the Greens Denison figure in the ReachTEL, as this would represent their vote effectively holding about steady in that seat since 2010 (with the Wilkie factor taken into account) and that to me does not ring true. <br /><br />The general pattern in polling is that all polls show the Liberals winning but there is huge variation in which of Labor and the Greens is copping the damage in seat terms. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-81491577122641662252013-06-19T11:13:42.727+10:002013-06-19T11:13:42.727+10:00Hi Kevin
How likely do you think it is that the g...Hi Kevin<br /><br />How likely do you think it is that the greens could get equal with and be co-opposition with labor, or go 6-4 and get opposition?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07976257140680933499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-10211168531073643032013-06-17T14:09:53.238+10:002013-06-17T14:09:53.238+10:00I wouldn't have thought the Braddon 'Other...I wouldn't have thought the Braddon 'Others' vote overly surprising, given the events regarding the Tarkine over the last few months. <br /><br />That's a lot of committed Labor supporters (read committed Liberal opponents) who have been given short shaft by their party of choice. They are going to find it difficult to vote any of the above.<br /><br />The only difficulty for Labor in moving to a 35 seat system now is that it would be pretty transparent what they were doing, and they may end up taking a further hit in support for trying it on.<br /><br /> intuitivereasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15444634755480881972noreply@blogger.com