tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post4321238316505240045..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: Seat Betting Watch: The Last Few DaysKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-82518600974854165872016-07-01T21:43:00.864+10:002016-07-01T21:43:00.864+10:00You should also have a look at the betting market ...You should also have a look at the betting market in Cowper. Sportsbet started reducing Oakeshott's odds dramatically this afternoon. He was equal favourite (at 1.87) earlier in the evening and is now favoured at 1.75. William Hill did not react so quickly and have stopped taking bets on Cowper after leaving Oakeshott at 3.00 or so for too long (they reacted too late to avoid at least some arbitraging).Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15590171402341396667noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-79283084707258097692016-07-01T00:08:35.463+10:002016-07-01T00:08:35.463+10:00ReachTEL had some shockers with the Green vote in ...ReachTEL had some shockers with the Green vote in NSW seats at the last state election, and had a similarly bad experience in Melbourne (federal seat) early in its existence. There is a lot of enrolment churn and transience in inner-city electorates and up-to-date databases are very important. However the one neutral poll of Batman I recall has been by Newspoll/Galaxy which has a better record with such cases (albeit from limited evidence). <br /><br /><br />Concerning Victoria I remember the Greens putting out commissioned polling saying they would win both Melbourne (state seat) and Richmond, but only winning Melbourne and missing the margin in Richmond by six points. So I don't recall seat polls for the Victorian election underestimating them. <br /><br />Subjectively I think the seat is at high risk because of the inner-city intensification thing we saw in both those state elections, plus the Feeney disasters and the possibility Liberals will buck the card. Objectively the evidence for a 10 point swing to a party with only a modest national gain needs to be stronger than a poll showing Feeney three points ahead. So it's a tricky one. I'm tempted, but for different reasons.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-56686447192660812382016-06-30T23:43:51.606+10:002016-06-30T23:43:51.606+10:00Granted that national polling tends to overestimat...Granted that national polling tends to overestimate the Greens vote.<br />BUT the experience of the Vic and NSW state elections is that seat polling UNDERESTIMATES the Greens vote.<br /><br />On that basis, wouldn't you be tempted to put Batman as a probably gain for GREENS and loss for Labor?OmiyaAdminhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07796105069175261010noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-7742623546112576632016-06-30T18:32:36.466+10:002016-06-30T18:32:36.466+10:00Ta. I hadn't looked at Betfair yet, but as it...Ta. I hadn't looked at Betfair yet, but as it happens a lot of seats there have no bets or trivial totals (Mayo $9), while some do have modest amounts matched (eg Eden-Monaro over $1000). Their headline rate around the $9 range seems consistent with others given the way they work.<br /><br />Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-52848713865268767962016-06-30T17:53:54.318+10:002016-06-30T17:53:54.318+10:00Betfair will show you the total matched per market...Betfair will show you the total matched per market, but given it's not really the main bookmaker in Australia, it might be tough to interpolate from that figure.David Mhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01177146351894809776noreply@blogger.com