tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post426727704791026450..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: Postcount: 2016 Tasmanian SenateKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger27125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-11034300621739438802016-07-12T22:20:44.196+10:002016-07-12T22:20:44.196+10:00Thanks Kevin.. Look forward to seeing results tom...Thanks Kevin.. Look forward to seeing results tomorrow (hopefully)Bridgewaterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08095123507930415187noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-53076914176954234572016-07-12T20:27:31.545+10:002016-07-12T20:27:31.545+10:00Over 28,000 ballots were scanned and a substantial...Over 28,000 ballots were scanned and a substantial proportion of those data-checked but to date there has been no update posted on the candidate BTL totals as a result.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-47441438258218247352016-07-12T20:15:01.753+10:002016-07-12T20:15:01.753+10:00Hey Kevin, do you know if they did any counting to...Hey Kevin, do you know if they did any counting today (Tuesday) for the Senate in Tas?Bridgewaterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08095123507930415187noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-3846925321401886562016-07-11T19:01:20.249+10:002016-07-11T19:01:20.249+10:00Now count gone back similar to the 83.4% situation...Now count gone back similar to the 83.4% situation with lower % for Singh and Colbeck as per 2.54 pm comment.Wakefieldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09727720240732796445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-2029765095496905522016-07-11T17:34:57.409+10:002016-07-11T17:34:57.409+10:00Something like that - it's extremely hard to f...Something like that - it's extremely hard to follow.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-40535785699859671612016-07-11T16:52:08.404+10:002016-07-11T16:52:08.404+10:00You must have influence KB - Tas count has reverse...You must have influence KB - Tas count has reversed to previous position?Wakefieldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09727720240732796445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-72419424725681923732016-07-11T15:21:47.008+10:002016-07-11T15:21:47.008+10:00Yes again we have over 6500 votes in Franklin that...Yes again we have over 6500 votes in Franklin that are partially allocated in this way rendering the overall allocation grossly misleading.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-89504458803051957862016-07-11T15:16:31.566+10:002016-07-11T15:16:31.566+10:00Kevin,
My experience of polling officials advising...Kevin,<br />My experience of polling officials advising voters to number 1-6 above the line or 1-12 below the line, meant that the "only" was implicit rather than ordered. I'm speaking essentially of mobile booths - nursing homes etc. <br />I didn't scrtuineer, so I have no first hand information about how voters treated the Senate. My guess is that the numbers doing more than the minimum either atl or btl would be miniscule. Fortified by your advice, I went 1-116 in Victoria, with the usual intense contest for the feted #116.PJFhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08664724463346713484noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-31977518890996541692016-07-11T15:05:56.548+10:002016-07-11T15:05:56.548+10:00I am checking on this but a common problem in the ...I am checking on this but a common problem in the count has been that some booths are added to the totals with a split into Ticket Votes and Unapportioned and without the breakdown of candidate votes, causing the apparent candidate votes to be unreliably low. I will have accurate figures up soon.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-64481718939703718912016-07-11T14:54:25.944+10:002016-07-11T14:54:25.944+10:00With count now up to 83.4% and near 25% of votes a...With count now up to 83.4% and near 25% of votes allocated to Group or individual candidates the % of votes for both Singh and Colbeck seems to have dropped to about 0.55 quota for Singh and 0.35 quota for Colbeck. Seems to be bouncing around so there could be some non-random processes occurring.<br /><br />Given both Singh and Colbeck only collect preferences from the c20% BTL voters (but no doubt get a good proportion) then it is looking less likely for Colbeck and more likely for second Green unless some stronger than expected preference flows occur with the smaller groups. Having said that if Colbeck is eliminated then those preferences could help FF or other centre/right group if they are ahead of Colbeck at that stage??Wakefieldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09727720240732796445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-78826869235913769322016-07-09T14:38:33.046+10:002016-07-09T14:38:33.046+10:00With about 80% count it seems clear that Singh wil...With about 80% count it seems clear that Singh will be elected late in the piece with a near quota depending on the run of BTL votes with the fifth Labor candidate knocked out fairly early and the fourth Labor candidate below a quota but a big enough share to get a seat at the end. <br /><br />Five Labor, 4 Liberals apart from Colbeck, 1 Greens and Jacquie Lambie. <br /><br />The last spot between: <br />Colbeck probably with about 0.5 plus of a quota by then, <br /><br />Second Greens with a fair number of votes with Recreational Fishers, Sex/Hemp, Arts, Science, Renewable Energy, Animal Justice which will presumably preference Greens to a significant extent above centre and right groups but also with a fair share going to Singh and fourth Labor and plus a share of the more centrist NXT and PUP (and maybe Lambie ticket). <br /><br />A right minor - there are enough FF, Shooters, Hanson, ALA, LDP votes (a full quota in all) to get ahead of Colbeck and the second Greens if their preferences ran well between all groups - hard to see it happening as Liberals, Labor, Greens and Exhaust will gradually whittle down the total.<br /><br />NXT also an outised chance if the high recognition X logo drags in preferences above the line.<br /><br />Looks like about 20% overall voting below the line. A triumph for the new voting system and perhaps "genius" by the Liberals to snare a fifth spot by creating opportunity for fourth Liberal and Colbeck to stay in the race which would never have existed otherwise.Wakefieldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09727720240732796445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-80836813310352296242016-07-08T20:24:50.245+10:002016-07-08T20:24:50.245+10:00I am not aware of any evidence of normally valid v...I am not aware of any evidence of normally valid votes with more than 6 (or 12) numbers being counted even as provisionally informal on the night. I do believe this happened provisionally with just-vote-1s, but they will all be sorted out on data entry anyway. <br /><br />There are a lot of strange votes out there under a new system. Some people are voting both above and below the line. I saw two votes that had a one ATL above the line then numbered 2-dozens below. (Such votes will be saved by the savings provision, but only for one party). There are a lot of votes that are extremely hard to read. There are some people who have voted 1 only below the line for a candidate (which really is informal). Some people have voted 1-6 below the line (which is formal under the savings provision.)<br /><br />I am aware that voters in many places weren't told that they could number at least so many boxes, and that in some unfortunate cases voters were incorrectly told they could only number that many. That said, the ballot papers had the correct advice on them, but this is clearly an area that needs improvement next time and that I will stress in the next round of JSCEM hearings.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-41189327164998911522016-07-08T18:55:41.474+10:002016-07-08T18:55:41.474+10:00If there are votes being counted as informal if th...If there are votes being counted as informal if they have more than 1-6 ATL or 1-12 BTL then that's pathetic by both the officials and the AEC as optional preferential voting is nothing new and it makes not logical sense to exclude people for preferencing more than the minimum.<br /><br />If votes are counted as informal if they are below 1-6 ATL or 1-12 BTL in the preliminary count then that is understandable. The rule around a vote being formal even if preferenced less than the minimum is a rule only known to people who have kept a keen eye on the senate reforms and the AEC quite rightly did not want to promote this too much.Jamiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02279311494127044640noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-65556172121438591342016-07-08T16:35:27.922+10:002016-07-08T16:35:27.922+10:00"some votes that are being counted as informa..."some votes that are being counted as informal will probably be found to be formal". Yes, I am amazed that the informal rate is allegedly up from 2.2% to 5.5% in Queensland. My best guess is that the same *poorly-trained* officials who were telling voters that they "must" number 6 boxes ATL or 12 BTL (and apparently saying, or implying, no less and no more) were doing the preliminary count and were rejecting anything that didn't have exactly 1-6 ATL or 1-12 BTL. Shame, AEC, shame! I know they have a difficult job but the general level of ignorance reported from polling officials suggests the training missed a few VERY important points.<br /> <br />(The silly-looking nom-de-web is because I occasionally comment on another Atom-hosted site about apartment developments in Brisbane, where it actually looks quite appropriate. But I think you know who I am, KB.)Jack Arandahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06210027164177789357noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-56471400625997731602016-07-07T09:06:52.285+10:002016-07-07T09:06:52.285+10:00More senate votes starting to trickle through, too...More senate votes starting to trickle through, too early to make an accurate prediction but looks like strong BTL voting for Colebeck and Signh. Could end up with Lisa Signh having ~ 0.7 of a quota BTL, Colebeck ~ 0.6 of a quota BTL and Mckim picking up the Greens 0.45 of a quota remainder. Could be interesting if the BTL votes mean Signh or Colebeck actually beat out the fourth member on their respective tickets (seems much more likely to happen for Colebeck given the liberals being just over 4 quotas). Jamiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02279311494127044640noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-65535593191392581002016-07-06T16:16:12.598+10:002016-07-06T16:16:12.598+10:00It appears if they have just started seperating AT...It appears if they have just started seperating ATL and BTL votes, still a long way to go and they still haven't counted about 85,000 - 90,000 senate votes yet at all.Jamiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02279311494127044640noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-30301675046449736832016-07-05T13:33:38.286+10:002016-07-05T13:33:38.286+10:00thank you, I thought ticket votes must have been A...thank you, I thought ticket votes must have been ATLs but the numbers didnt stack up.David Whttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00745236634495454054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-53836850804753991582016-07-05T12:12:31.547+10:002016-07-05T12:12:31.547+10:00A ticket vote is a vote that is 1 above the line f...A ticket vote is a vote that is 1 above the line for a party. An unapportioned vote is a vote that was counted as a vote for a party on election night but has not yet been separated as above or below the line. It looks like what they are doing is separating votes into above or below the line, and counting the ATLs by party as they go, and then the BTLs will be counted by candidate as they are data-entered.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-78604865875312983902016-07-05T11:38:47.543+10:002016-07-05T11:38:47.543+10:00This comment has been removed by the author.David Whttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00745236634495454054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-9241695487328184722016-07-05T11:38:03.599+10:002016-07-05T11:38:03.599+10:00On the AEC senate Tally Room http://vtr.aec.gov.au...On the AEC senate Tally Room http://vtr.aec.gov.au/SenateStateFirstPrefs-20499-TAS.htm, there is ticket votes and unapportioned, what is the difference?David Whttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00745236634495454054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-73114479776346095832016-07-04T16:34:30.692+10:002016-07-04T16:34:30.692+10:00As far as I can tell, quite remote, though anythin...As far as I can tell, quite remote, though anything above 0.0000000 is much too high for my liking. There is just going to be so much individual voting in Tasmania, vast numbers of BTLs, and it is going to be a lot like a Hare-Clark election - you get votes on name recognition, not because party X preferenced party Y. The best chance for him might be if Colbeck gets quota on BTLs causing Bushby to be cut out early and releasing the Liberal HTV preferences. But even the non-Colbeck Lib voters are voting BTL in significant numbers and those who vote ATL will not all follow the card.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-20902638170382753672016-07-04T14:52:55.774+10:002016-07-04T14:52:55.774+10:00Peter Madden is talking up his chances on Twitter....Peter Madden is talking up his chances on Twitter. What do you think is the likelihood of this truly ghastly outcome eventuating?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-65284201865656527412016-07-04T00:23:49.179+10:002016-07-04T00:23:49.179+10:00I voted at one Hobart booth in the morning, and ha...I voted at one Hobart booth in the morning, and handed out htv cards (green ) at another and didn't see a single micro party person at either. Lots of get up people thoughWolfehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03415951596473541196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-47970873286931855442016-07-03T21:45:27.641+10:002016-07-03T21:45:27.641+10:00I expect that there will only be strongish prefere...I expect that there will only be strongish preference flows if lots of people follow the cards. If many voters do not follow the cards (whether voting ATL or BTL) then preference flows when parties are excluded will be weaker and generally parties will just be excluded from the bottom up, making it impossible for micro-parties (for instance) to come up through the count, and just leaving a Labor-Liberal-Green contest for the last seat. We can rely on very ideologically similar parties having some preference flow though, eg a lot of Animal Justice preferences will go to the Greens and Labor whether their voters have seen the cards or not.<br /><br />I thought I'd mentioned the postcount shift for the Liberals in the article but see I hadn't. In 2013 they improved their vote total by 0.15% (0.02 of a quota) from the postcount to the final primaries - not a very large difference, plus the ordinary votes still to come are unlikely to help them. Micro-parties generally perform slightly more poorly on declaration votes, but it varied by micro-party with not much difference in most cases.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-27403849023393894532016-07-03T20:51:33.823+10:002016-07-03T20:51:33.823+10:00If there are a lot of BTL votes, or if most people...If there are a lot of BTL votes, or if most people ignore the HTV cards, then I'm not sure how you can make a prediction for the final two seats at all. What can you base your predictions on?<br /><br />Do you expect that the postals will vary significantly from the existing first preference proportions? The media say that the Liberals do better in the postals, but is it expected to be a significant difference? And who can predict how many votes the micros will get from postals?<br /><br />Peterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07596906102213374936noreply@blogger.com