tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post4041544480019942469..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: ReachTEL: Liberals Consolidate, But Who Should Lead Labor?Kevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-5213921652459902482015-06-15T09:32:39.812+10:002015-06-15T09:32:39.812+10:00Thanks. I certainly agree with the last paragraph....Thanks. I certainly agree with the last paragraph. Apart from Singh all the Tas Labor Senators are pretty useless.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13123271067640069925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-79030614957132545942015-06-15T00:00:28.668+10:002015-06-15T00:00:28.668+10:00The sitting members have all become reasonably hig...The sitting members have all become reasonably high-profile and well-known (some were already, eg Whiteley was a former state MHA). Possibly Eric Hutchinson (Lyons) lags the other two in profile terms, but he has made a lot of comments on forestry issues that are well in tune with my reading of that electorate. My only observation re their performance is that Andrew Nikolic (Bass) is especially confrontation-prone and polarising, though prior to the election this was also true and did not prevent him polling good approval ratings.<br /><br />Labor has endorsed Brian Mitchell as candidate for Lyons. This is a good move as Lyons has a lot of small communities and takes a long time to get around. Preselections are still being decided for Bass (according to the Mercury on 30/5 candidates were Ross Hart, Mark Price) and Braddon (Devonport alderman Justine Keay, Themba Bulle, Kristian Aaberg). I have no particular opinion (yet) about any of these candidates. Keay ran in the state election polling 1382 votes, which is neither bad nor anything special. <br /><br />Singh is reportedly at risk of being dumped to fourth on the Labor Senate ticket (even third could be hard to win from). I think the rank and file should instead stand up to the factional deals and demote Helen Polley. Not only are Polley's social-issue views unsuitable for a modern left party but Polley has also proved a significant liability, coming under scrutiny over travel expenses and workplace issues in her office. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-72225194759557868892015-06-14T23:18:50.465+10:002015-06-14T23:18:50.465+10:00What's your opinion of the standing and perfor...What's your opinion of the standing and performance of the three sitting members, and of the prospective Labor candidates (if these are known)? I think you'd agree that this counts for more in Tasmania than it does elsewhere. I haven't thought much of Tasmanian Labor's federal candidate selections in recent years, apart from Collins and Singh.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13123271067640069925noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-13627650540567432182015-06-14T18:18:57.749+10:002015-06-14T18:18:57.749+10:00There is some recent federal voting intention poll...There is some recent federal voting intention polling for those seats which I covered at:<br /><br />http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2015/05/would-wood-waste-waste-seat-of-franklin.html<br /><br />(Bass, Braddon and Franklin were all polled and there is a note at the bottom re a second Braddon poll.)<br /><br />In general Labor poll better at federal than state level in those three seats. The recent federal polls had Labor 2.6 points higher on average at federal level than this state poll, and that was although the federal poll had an "undecided" option and the state poll didn't - so the real difference is probably more like 5 points.<br /><br />There is good evidence though that Labor are not recovering as well in Tasmania federally as in the rest of the country. On current polling it is touch and go whether Labor would recover even one Tasmanian seat. If the Coalition's national polling rises from here then that may move all three seats out of reach; if it falls Labor will have better prospects of winning back more than one.<br /><br />It is rather too far from the next election to try to predict these seats beyond the above brief assessments.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-24071065190495131612015-06-14T17:55:25.352+10:002015-06-14T17:55:25.352+10:00KB could you do a post some time on your assessmen...KB could you do a post some time on your assessment of Labor's prospects of regaining Bass, Braddon and Lyons at the next federal election? On these state figures it would seem the prospects are pretty poor, but you may have a different view. ACAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13123271067640069925noreply@blogger.com