tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post3824046771545430631..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: Nats Under The Gun In The Orange PostcountKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-60847191881784402212016-11-17T19:09:50.595+11:002016-11-17T19:09:50.595+11:00Thanks, those are great! The Dalley example ticks ...Thanks, those are great! The Dalley example ticks both boxes of being held by the government at the time of the election and also having been contested by the opposition in both cases.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-31945355358692760952016-11-17T18:35:43.756+11:002016-11-17T18:35:43.756+11:00If we're looking for artificial swings, the 19...If we're looking for artificial swings, the 1931 federal election in NSW is fertile ground thanks to Lang Labor. Considering Federal Labor (FLP) to represent the government and comparing it to Labor's 1929 vote, we have:<br />-19.2 in Eden-Monaro (lost to UAP, sitting MP Cusack FLP but contested Cowper)<br />-22.6 in Hume (lost to Country Party, sitting MP Fuller FLP)<br />-28.8 in Gwydir (lost to Country Party, sitting MP Cunningham FLP)<br />-29.4 in Darling (easily retained, sitting MP Blakeley FLP)<br />-31.8 in Riverina (Country Party-held)<br />-32.6 in Calare (lost to Country Party, sitting MP Gibbons FLP)<br />-34.9 in South Sydney (lost to UAP, sitting MP Riley FLP)<br />-37.5 in Macquarie (narrowly lost to UAP, sitting MP Chifley FLP)<br />-38.5 in Parramatta (lost to UAP, sitting MP Rowe FLP)<br />-38.8 in Robertson (UAP-held)<br />-40.5 in Martin (lost to UAP, sitting MP Eldridge Lang but contested Barton)<br />-46.1 in Lang (lost to UAP, sitting MP Long FLP)<br />-46.3 in Parkes (UAP-held since by-election)<br />-46.6 in Reid (lost to Lang Labor, sitting MP Coleman FLP)<br />-48.4 in Barton (lost to UAP, sitting MP Tully FLP, also contested by Lang MP for Martin)<br />-53.2 in Cook (narrowly retained, sitting MP Riley FLP)<br />-55.1 in East Sydney (lost to UAP, sitting MP Ward Lang)<br />-56.0 in Werriwa (lost to Country Party, sitting MP Lazzarini Lang)<br />-58.3 in Dalley (lost to Lang Labor, sitting MP Theodore FLP)<br />and the winner ...<br />-71.6 in West Sydney (lost to Lang Labor sitting MP Beasley)<br /><br />(FLP also lost Hunter to Lang Labor, with the sitting Lang MP having been elected unopposed in 1929. FLP polled 8.7%. FLP retained Newcastle with the sitting MP Watkins on 30.5%; this had also been uncontested in 1929.)Geoffreyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02047145278279336626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-74415304236030046882016-11-13T21:30:26.458+11:002016-11-13T21:30:26.458+11:00Yes, it's hardly a philosophical realignment; ...Yes, it's hardly a philosophical realignment; it's the voters saying that they haven't changed but they think the Nationals have changed and sold out.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-13694226438064848962016-11-13T21:11:52.626+11:002016-11-13T21:11:52.626+11:00Seems to me it's a fine point whether you see ...Seems to me it's a fine point whether you see this as a swing against the Nationals, or just a split in the Nationals. It's not as if there's some huge shift in the general opinions of the average Orange voter - they're just voting for a more angry and emphatic version of the party they've always supported.Jack Arandahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06210027164177789357noreply@blogger.com