tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post3538697360199103850..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: 2019 Federal Election: Pollster Performance ReviewKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-41947359677271803732019-08-20T22:45:43.535+10:002019-08-20T22:45:43.535+10:00William Bowe published an excellent piece on that ...William Bowe published an excellent piece on that here, albeit prior to final 2PP figures.<br /><br />https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/05/31/swings-misses-episode-three/#more-42320<br /><br />Yes Queensland was the big error (and not for the first time as there is a history of Labor underperforming its polling there); WA and to a lesser extent NSW were also pretty bad.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-80502663694876187622019-08-20T22:37:44.418+10:002019-08-20T22:37:44.418+10:00Have you had a chance to look at polling errors by...Have you had a chance to look at polling errors by state? The impression I got was that polling performance was particularly bad in Queensland - I'm struggling to remember a single poll in Queensland (whether it was a seat poll, a state-specific poll or the state breakdown of a national poll) which got within 5% of the correct 2PP result. (The corollary to that is that if you take out Queensland, the polling performance for the rest of the country doesn't look so bad).Blair Trewinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01149841441852181770noreply@blogger.com