tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post3368132695027101360..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: Victorian Upper House LiveKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger51125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-91023096993951769492018-12-10T17:18:20.364+11:002018-12-10T17:18:20.364+11:00Hopefully preference distributions will be up soon...Hopefully preference distributions will be up soon after each declaration. In theory someone might request a recount and a declaration might be delayed.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-56242781780554931992018-12-10T16:40:31.429+11:002018-12-10T16:40:31.429+11:00Looks like we will know all tomorrow! Button push ...Looks like we will know all tomorrow! Button push for East Metro at 2:10PM. https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/Media/2018StateElectionCountingActivities.html<br /><br />They aren't declaring until 6PM but I guess results will be broadcast by media soon after the calculation?David Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08765986990904147427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-12578673127636046192018-12-07T10:47:44.533+11:002018-12-07T10:47:44.533+11:00The former basically. It goes to exhaust and coun...The former basically. It goes to exhaust and counts zero for any candidate from that point. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-79604713161836666212018-12-07T10:39:26.723+11:002018-12-07T10:39:26.723+11:00Hi Kevin, silly question, but I was wondering what...Hi Kevin, silly question, but I was wondering what happens to BTL votes numbered 1-5 where all the candidates have been eliminated from the count? Does that vote become null and void or does it revert back to GVT preferences?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17385140326366426976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-88372456720726256582018-12-05T21:23:00.460+11:002018-12-05T21:23:00.460+11:00Yes, inner city electorates tend to have low turno...Yes, inner city electorates tend to have low turnout because they tend to have more transient populations. Sydney district in NSW in 2015 had only 82.5%.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-51666826470254913062018-12-05T21:07:43.163+11:002018-12-05T21:07:43.163+11:00That's very interesting re: Melbourne. Is it c...That's very interesting re: Melbourne. Is it common for CBD/inner city electorates to have low turnout?<br /><br />It seems like they have mostly completed the other regions as only a few votes have trickled in over the last couple days, or perhaps they have just been focused on getting North Metro up to par as they are doing tomorrow.David Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08765986990904147427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-53318724406450951332018-12-05T20:42:15.877+11:002018-12-05T20:42:15.877+11:00Melbourne has naturally low turnout. Only made 84...Melbourne has naturally low turnout. Only made 84.43 in the lower house so I wouldn't expect too much more to come there. Interesting the Liberals have fallen off this much (and Broadmeadows could hurt them more), time for me to have a careful look at what the Liberals need to be safe considering BTLs.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-40793824668643359932018-12-05T20:30:07.251+11:002018-12-05T20:30:07.251+11:00Thanks for all the analysis Kevin!
I will update ...Thanks for all the analysis Kevin!<br /><br />I will update all regions in my spreadsheet shortly. Count here is up to 86.2%. Today approx. 11k votes added in Pascoe Vale and 6.5k in Northcote. Greens looked to do exceptionally well in a batch from Pascoe Vale. Both major parties did very poorly actually, the calculator currently has both Reason and DHJP being elected and Liberal party missing out. Things might turn around again though as Northcote looks to be just about fully counted. Pascoe Vale (71.97%), Broadmeadows (81.97%) and Melbourne (83.88%) have the most left.<br /><br />Total % ATL BTL<br />5198 1.1861% 4621 577<br />4440 1.0131% 3818 622<br />3067 0.6998% 2356 711<br />1566 0.3573% 1350 216<br />15131 3.4526% 7611 7520<br />3662 0.8356% 3183 479<br />6105 1.3930% 5619 486<br />3783 0.8632% 3429 354<br />70628 16.1157% 67457 3171<br />74713 17.0478% 56710 18003<br />2620 0.5978% 2250 370<br />18759 4.2804% 12452 6307<br />18820 4.2943% 18146 674<br />1704 0.3888% 1476 228<br />184080 42.0029% 169132 14948<br />9324 2.1275% 8732 592<br />9058 2.0668% 7912 1146<br />5346 1.2198% 4886 460<br />251 0.0573% 214 37<br />438255 99.9998% David Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08765986990904147427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-25576975544926240092018-12-04T23:57:34.907+11:002018-12-04T23:57:34.907+11:00I'll have a look at these and also my previous...I'll have a look at these and also my previous projection right away to see how Patten is going with BTL risk if she is in the hunt. Greens still being at 16.54 would be encouraging for her given that that many votes from Yuroke were added. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-12995370042744728782018-12-04T22:28:13.503+11:002018-12-04T22:28:13.503+11:00Up to 82.46% counted. Biggest addition was 9000 or...Up to 82.46% counted. Biggest addition was 9000 or so votes in Yuroke. Greens at 16.54%. Even if the Greens make quota early in the count Fiona Patten might still be in trouble given the huge number of Vic Socialists BTL votes.<br /><br />4780 1.1405% 4225 555<br />4097 0.9775% 3504 593<br />2788 0.6652% 2122 666<br />1459 0.3481% 1251 208<br />13956 3.3297% 6756 7200<br />3341 0.7971% 2882 459<br />5597 1.3354% 5128 469<br />3510 0.8374% 3173 337<br />69597 16.6050% 66521 3076<br />69306 16.5356% 52260 17046<br />2427 0.5791% 2081 346<br />17603 4.1999% 11570 6033<br />17268 4.1199% 16626 642<br />1595 0.3805% 1370 225<br />180205 42.9948% 165812 14393<br />8304 1.9812% 7743 561<br />8186 1.9531% 7107 1079<br />4881 1.1645% 4441 440<br />232 0.0554% 195 37<br />419132 99.9999% <br />David Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08765986990904147427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-83479516351816731412018-12-03T21:21:26.627+11:002018-12-03T21:21:26.627+11:00Have tallied up the counts from the word docs. Mai...Have tallied up the counts from the word docs. Main takeaways:<br />- East Vic 89.69%: Aussie Battlers taken calculator lead but still getting whipped on BTLs by DHJP I think.<br />- North Metro 78.70%: Very low count here for some reason. Greens have been going well the early/postal votes I guess, up to 16.63%.<br />- S Metro 83.83%: Perhaps there is still hope as there are some votes out there still but can't see SA getting beaten. Greens need to pick up considerably I think. Either that or AJP miraculously needs to get in front of FPRP.<br />- W Metro 86.34%: LDLP's position may have improved? They look to outlast Liberal party which puts them head to head with DHJP for last seat with DHJP coming out on top even though some exposure to BTLs?David Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08765986990904147427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-59943067693034504762018-12-03T17:12:17.636+11:002018-12-03T17:12:17.636+11:00On those figures yes. On those figures yes. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-22786055798806870982018-12-03T16:13:45.644+11:002018-12-03T16:13:45.644+11:00No idea what votes are still uncounted but it is l...No idea what votes are still uncounted but it is looking good for Liberal Democrats?<br /><br />Total % ATL BTL<br />209684 50.18% 201934 7750<br />5176 1.24% 4423 753<br />3468 0.83% 3172 296<br />1408 0.34% 1095 313<br />121263 29.02% 118027 3236<br />3439 0.82% 3149 290<br />2837 0.68% 2522 315<br />3541 0.85% 2239 1302<br />22998 5.50% 19581 3417<br />360 0.09% 322 38<br />1108 0.27% 1026 82<br />1155 0.28% 840 315<br />5918 1.42% 5329 589<br />2661 0.64% 2482 179<br />6018 1.44% 5624 394<br />9086 2.17% 8204 882<br />2222 0.53% 1980 242<br />12561 3.01% 11705 856<br />2806 0.67% 2396 410<br />61 0.01% 0 61<br />24 0.01% 0 24<br />42 0.01% 0 42<br />417836 100.00% <br />David Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08765986990904147427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-61132980871042456302018-12-02T21:30:05.704+11:002018-12-02T21:30:05.704+11:00Thanks for the analysis Kevin! Only minor update s...Thanks for the analysis Kevin! Only minor update since earlier today, 402 votes added for Richmond State EO - Early 8. Greens picked up 140 (100ATL/40BTL) out of 402 perhaps slightly better than their early vote average in Richmond.David Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08765986990904147427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-21869580030497233022018-12-02T15:31:51.231+11:002018-12-02T15:31:51.231+11:00Thankyou, that's very handy. I might have a g...Thankyou, that's very handy. I might have a go at a weighted projection later today. On those numbers the Greens would get quota before the Victorian Socialists exclusion and Patten would win, but with some not very Green areas undercounted that may not hold up. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-50008179335842010572018-12-02T15:11:40.741+11:002018-12-02T15:11:40.741+11:00You might be aware already Kevin but the VEC word ...You might be aware already Kevin but the VEC word docs now include district counts so not as hard to compile a count. It shows North Metro at 397815 formal votes (421,082 total) and I get the following breakdown:<br /><br />Total % ATL BTL<br />4528 1.14% 4012 516<br />3851 0.97% 3297 554<br />2605 0.65% 1979 626<br />1391 0.35% 1193 198<br />13330 3.35% 6467 6863<br />3110 0.78% 2674 436<br />5256 1.32% 4809 447<br />3285 0.83% 2970 315<br />65576 16.48% 62696 2880<br />65960 16.58% 49689 16271<br />2307 0.58% 1972 335<br />17049 4.29% 11221 5828<br />16436 4.13% 15825 611<br />1507 0.38% 1298 209<br />171515 43.11% 157804 13711<br />7694 1.93% 7170 524<br />7635 1.92% 6618 1017<br />4557 1.15% 4147 410<br />223 0.06% 187 36<br />397815 100.00% <br /> <br />David Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08765986990904147427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-33484542009903165882018-12-01T17:09:04.443+11:002018-12-01T17:09:04.443+11:00Yes it should because that's actually a lot of...Yes it should because that's actually a lot of voters, and we should also allow for voters to vote quickly rather than forcing them to spend too much time filling a ballot. Even getting 1-12 right without a single error is so difficult that several % of voters in the Hobart council election (one of Australia's most informed electorates when it comes to multi-candidate voting) still stuffed it up - and that was in a postal vote! People with good numeracy skills often don't understand how bad numeracy and clerical skills are in the rest of the electorate. I know brilliant scientists who I couldn't trust to reliably count to 10. However, fortunately, Victoria doesn't require counting to 50 or 70, it only requires 1-5 below the line.<br /><br />Abolishing ATL entirely would be better than any form of Group Ticket voting. The main drawback of it compared to a Senate style system (which allows ATL but the ATL vote only flows to parties the voter gives preferences to) could be high leakage rates on over-quota transfers from the major parties. Tasmania doesn't have much problem with this because it is a small place and people know who the major party candidates are. For districts with half a million voters this isn't so straightforward. But pretty much anything is better than Group Ticket Voting!Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-6492899670714860552018-12-01T16:41:49.020+11:002018-12-01T16:41:49.020+11:00With all the problems with preference whispering, ...With all the problems with preference whispering, etc, why not simply abolish above the line voting? Should our democracy depend on voters who can't count to 50 or 70 or whatever?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-2242866245253496782018-11-30T12:21:34.032+11:002018-11-30T12:21:34.032+11:00On current figures I get that they would win 19 se...On current figures I get that they would win 19 seats with a chance of 20 but not a majority. They would win threes in SE Metro, N Vic and N Metro, and might be able to catch the Greens for another three in W Vic.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-22222710142266460492018-11-30T09:45:39.973+11:002018-11-30T09:45:39.973+11:00Might be too early for an analysis of this kind, K...Might be too early for an analysis of this kind, Kevin, but do you think if Labor had passed upper house reform that they could have won a majority of seats? N Vic (14%), N Metro (10%), W Vic (5%~) look to be the main chances in a GVT-less alternate reality.David Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08765986990904147427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-23450537797368601382018-11-28T14:48:47.716+11:002018-11-28T14:48:47.716+11:00Yes I've heard that's likely. At the mome...Yes I've heard that's likely. At the moment this probably only helps Cummings to the extent that it takes votes from the Liberals. If the Liberals are over Labour DLP at the critical point then Cummings loses to the Shooters by currently about 4%, a gap that won't be closed in subsequent counting. If the Liberals are behind Labour DLP, Cummings wins.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-29693009479770396662018-11-28T14:38:57.355+11:002018-11-28T14:38:57.355+11:00You mentioned Footscray being under-counted. Cummi...You mentioned Footscray being under-counted. Cummings’ large personal vote is local to that area where she was a long-term councillor and mayor so her primaries will increase as Footscray is completed. Lockon Lizhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13901541649512679644noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-87934119165888720662018-11-28T11:06:32.897+11:002018-11-28T11:06:32.897+11:00That scenario looks rather real to me! DHJP are a...That scenario looks rather real to me! DHJP are actually more exposed to BTLs than the Shooters are so they wouldn't catch up if Shooters got the Liberal preferences.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-22223512600753279832018-11-28T10:36:45.064+11:002018-11-28T10:36:45.064+11:00Very interesting. Thankyou for an excellent first...Very interesting. Thankyou for an excellent first-time contribution!Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-30932186208100583622018-11-28T08:17:36.071+11:002018-11-28T08:17:36.071+11:00Morning Kevin,
Long time reader, first time poste...Morning Kevin,<br /><br />Long time reader, first time poster. While the Western Metropolitan count looks fairly straight forward at this stage, particularly with DHJP’s Catherine Cumming increasing her vote to an impressive 7.02% in recent counting, there is an interesting exclusion order issue that arises at Count 17.<br /><br />At present Count 17 has the Liberal Party being excluded before Labour DLP, and subsequent counts elect Vaghela (ALP) & Cumming (DHJP).<br /><br />However at Count 17, Labour DLP are only 0.04% ahead of the Liberal Party (a margin of just 137 votes). Labour DLP at this stage is on 4.80% (of which 1.33% is preferences), while the Liberal Party are on 4.76% (all of which is from their initial allocation). On these numbers alone it is realistic that Labour DLP will in fact be eliminated before the Liberal Party, and the counting of prepolls & postals should further increase this possibility.<br /><br />If Labour DLP are excluded at this point, 3.47% of Labour DLP vote flows to the Shooters Farmers & Fishers, 0.46% of Labour DLP preferences from the Australian Country Party flows to the Shooters Farmers & Fishers, and the remaining 0.87% of Labour DLP preferences from the Health Australia Party flow to DHJP.<br /><br />Count 17, then has the Liberal Party being excluded, and unlike the current calculator count these cannot flow to the now excluded Labour DLP, and instead all flow to the Shooters, Farmers & Fishers.<br /><br />Count 18 would then exclude the Greens, who would be well below the Shooters Farmers & Fishers, which elects Vaghela (ALP) in the fourth spot. <br /><br />It is worth noting at this point that while the Greens preference DHJP over SFF (just!), the ALP preferences SFF over DHJP, and the overflow gives SFF a decent margin over DHJP for the fifth & final spot.<br /><br />This result would be remarkable in the sense that Cumming from the DHJP has secured the highest primary vote of any micro-party candidate in the state of 7.02% at present (Greens excluded), but may bumped out by another micro-party who polled just 1.89% of the vote. Being from Melbourne’s west it is an odd prospect that we may be represented by a Shooter, Farmers & Fishers MP!<br /><br />With all that said it doesn’t take into consideration BTL votes which may again change exclusion orders, but the above is a scenario that I am not sure many (if any) commentators have considered!<br /><br />Cheers,<br /><br /><br />Cam<br />Cameron Nhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17024588105103723328noreply@blogger.com