tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post3235877642715889832..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: Victorian Election Postcount: PrahranKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-56504142393395965712014-12-09T18:11:01.564+11:002014-12-09T18:11:01.564+11:00Thanks KBThanks KBAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05118129740267969977noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-75207054661707191132014-12-09T17:42:29.127+11:002014-12-09T17:42:29.127+11:00Around 14.3%. It would have been almost exactly t...Around 14.3%. It would have been almost exactly the same requirement for Labor off the Greens as the other way round. The provisional 2PP throw suggested that just over that amount would have leaked, but it may be a while before we know the ALP/Liberal 2PP for sure now. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-13509734214987969672014-12-09T17:24:15.574+11:002014-12-09T17:24:15.574+11:00Kevin - how much of the Greens preferences would&#...Kevin - how much of the Greens preferences would've had to leak away from Labor to prevent Labor winning?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05118129740267969977noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-22942491482864522942014-12-01T13:16:20.288+11:002014-12-01T13:16:20.288+11:00Thanks very much for the detailed post Kevin, it&#...Thanks very much for the detailed post Kevin, it's much appreciatedNickyates88https://www.blogger.com/profile/13669577452939774110noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-45440126742064873792014-12-01T11:38:02.301+11:002014-12-01T11:38:02.301+11:00This is also what I expect based on 2010 patterns....This is also what I expect based on 2010 patterns. Again it's mainly the Absent votes that are the issue - they very strongly favoured the Greens compared to booth votes last time, at Labor's expense.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-61808474253783341302014-12-01T10:52:00.032+11:002014-12-01T10:52:00.032+11:00Green vote will increase in the votes to come, so ...Green vote will increase in the votes to come, so if they're winning from this early position then Labor+Liberal are very unlikely to regain enough ground to take back the seat.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05947377166619293759noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-26630452083654556312014-12-01T02:50:29.332+11:002014-12-01T02:50:29.332+11:00Yes. Discrepancy in postal campaign effort betwee...Yes. Discrepancy in postal campaign effort between CNB camp and ALP apparently. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-74147044713505837882014-12-01T02:40:56.958+11:002014-12-01T02:40:56.958+11:00Based on the difference between VEC and ABC, the s...Based on the difference between VEC and ABC, the second batch of postals seems to have broken wildly (62.7%) to CNB. Could that be?elkgrovehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03883093198470982076noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-53147286811733634002014-12-01T01:03:18.599+11:002014-12-01T01:03:18.599+11:00Comment attributed to "Luke Corcoran" wa...Comment attributed to "Luke Corcoran" was fake by an imposter and has been deleted.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-63836782903470721152014-12-01T00:45:35.149+11:002014-12-01T00:45:35.149+11:00Sadly (though perhaps not for the Greens) the data...Sadly (though perhaps not for the Greens) the data was fake and posted by an imposter.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-8157208853663552272014-11-30T23:55:59.853+11:002014-11-30T23:55:59.853+11:00Oooh, I didn't know that! Looks like 111 vote...Oooh, I didn't know that! Looks like 111 votes have changed hands in post-checking cutting the margin by 222. That does make it interesting. Should still win if postcount trends hold from 2010 but maybe they won't.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-6382195474264358142014-11-30T23:43:16.899+11:002014-11-30T23:43:16.899+11:00Based on Luke's sample I get Pharaoh needing s...Based on Luke's sample I get Pharaoh needing something north of 75% of Green preferences, not necessarily over 80%.David Berryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03837571579704014635noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-56200581820754279582014-11-30T23:40:43.818+11:002014-11-30T23:40:43.818+11:00Kevin in Melbourne the VEC website has a 50.74 /4...Kevin in Melbourne the VEC website has a 50.74 /49.26 split at the close of counting but with only 52% counted seems way early for the Greens to be claiming definite victory today with the Libs primary vote likely to increase in pre polls and postals and mainly flow through to ALP Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11709033532908301376noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-67195602400027475592014-11-30T23:31:08.071+11:002014-11-30T23:31:08.071+11:00Kevin surely Melbourne is still very much in play ...Kevin surely Melbourne is still very much in play as well with only 300 vote difference and a very low count (52%) <br /><br /><br />Peter NAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11709033532908301376noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-55888536518919006482014-11-30T23:18:33.056+11:002014-11-30T23:18:33.056+11:00This comment has been removed by the author.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-29450803105562389332014-11-30T23:03:29.836+11:002014-11-30T23:03:29.836+11:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11448373028176745415noreply@blogger.com