tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post311626639678440912..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: Queensland 2017 LiveKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-7110105857487510132017-11-26T13:52:19.198+11:002017-11-26T13:52:19.198+11:00See what you mean re pre-poll 2PP in Caloundra. It...See what you mean re pre-poll 2PP in Caloundra. It has come in at 59 to 41 and accounts for almost 1/3 of all ballots counted to date. Postal is coming in at 64-36 so far.Neilhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03267946559548664259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-67871326171773393882017-11-26T12:26:13.327+11:002017-11-26T12:26:13.327+11:00Prepoll in Caloundra hasn't been counted to 2P...Prepoll in Caloundra hasn't been counted to 2PP yet. When it is the LNP 2PP will increase and they will take the lead.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-77373301047794867052017-11-26T12:24:53.645+11:002017-11-26T12:24:53.645+11:00My guess: ALP 46 / LNP 40 / ONE 1 / KAT 3 / IND 1 ...My guess: ALP 46 / LNP 40 / ONE 1 / KAT 3 / IND 1 / DOU 2<br />In Doubt: Caloundra, Rockhampton (ALP or IND)<br />Assuming: <br />NLP wins Bonney, Whitsunday, Clayfield, Bundaberg, Burdekin, Hervey Bay, Pumicestone<br />ALP wins Cook, Townsville, Mundingburra, Maiwar, Gaven, Thuringowa, Macalister<br />ONP wins Mirani<br />KAP wins HinchinbrookNeilhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03267946559548664259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-37139616166496771162017-11-26T12:15:28.691+11:002017-11-26T12:15:28.691+11:00The ABC was projecting the LNP to make large gains...The ABC was projecting the LNP to make large gains in Caloundra from their current position but I am unsure on what basis as yet. Keeping an eye on it in case the ABC projection was, for whatever reason, wrong.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-55513621116818300392017-11-26T12:04:24.924+11:002017-11-26T12:04:24.924+11:00Caloundra looks to me one of the most marginal at ...Caloundra looks to me one of the most marginal at the momentNeilhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03267946559548664259noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-42425418167145526112017-11-26T10:42:13.253+11:002017-11-26T10:42:13.253+11:00The problem for Pyne is that One Nation preference...The problem for Pyne is that One Nation preferenced the LNP second in his seat. Not all the Green preferences will flow to him so to get into second he would need to get substantially more One Nation preferences than the LNP despite One Nation preferencing the LNP ahead of him. This seems very unlikely though in the absence of scrutineering data I wouldn't write off such a thing completely.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-48486448999983941322017-11-26T03:58:48.810+11:002017-11-26T03:58:48.810+11:00Isn't Cairns a "complicated" seat? D...Isn't Cairns a "complicated" seat? Doesn't Rob Pyne have enough to work with to preference snowball to victory? He's 2nd on the Greens ticket and I'd imagine him doing well enough with PHON voters to overtake the LNP, who'd preference him over Labor Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03536933978795184627noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-44966472167734525182017-11-25T23:38:06.167+11:002017-11-25T23:38:06.167+11:00Ta, I'll change Bonney to list it as a presume...Ta, I'll change Bonney to list it as a presumed LNP win. However, that's on the ABC's projection and some caution is required because the actual preferences are about tied.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-81522384974639211442017-11-25T23:31:59.593+11:002017-11-25T23:31:59.593+11:00Gaven has got worse again. Labor leads in both on...Gaven has got worse again. Labor leads in both on raw figures and projection but I've put Gaven back into unclear.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-59128224892596996842017-11-25T23:27:59.149+11:002017-11-25T23:27:59.149+11:00Also doesn't look like Bonney is still in doub...Also doesn't look like Bonney is still in doubt (and I don't think you're counting it as such in your totals?).Geoffreyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02047145278279336626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-31285183694026897292017-11-25T23:23:06.376+11:002017-11-25T23:23:06.376+11:00Kevin, I might be more confident about Pumicestone...Kevin, I might be more confident about Pumicestone than Gaven at this point?Geoffreyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02047145278279336626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-53927908548691876052017-11-25T21:22:55.217+11:002017-11-25T21:22:55.217+11:00Cook is another seat to add to the 'complicate...Cook is another seat to add to the 'complicated' pile.Rosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16543252375331961098noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-3676988508584287172017-11-25T21:20:23.324+11:002017-11-25T21:20:23.324+11:00Hi Kevin,
I believe ONP and LNP are swapping prefe...Hi Kevin,<br />I believe ONP and LNP are swapping preferences between themselves in Rockhampton. So the race for second may be tight between <br />Margaret Strelow and the ONP candidate.Rosshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16543252375331961098noreply@blogger.com