tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post3085059379685316502..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: New South Wales 2019: Battle Of The UnknownsKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-4910201072684952372019-01-05T12:42:01.975+11:002019-01-05T12:42:01.975+11:00Further to my previous post: As much as the Libera...Further to my previous post: As much as the Liberals are on the nose in Sydney, the National Party are on the nose in the Bush. I reckon a number of NP seats will fall to either independents, or the Shooters. Perhaps even ON will get a look in. An interesting seat to keep an eye on is Dubbo: with Troy Grant’s retirement its an open seat and I think the NP - who have preselected a local ABC ration broadcaster - will struggle to get over 30% of the primary vote. There is a strong Labor candidate in Barrister Stephen Lawrence and a high profile independent, who is basically a Liberal in a pretty ytransparent disguise. Lawrence is personally very popular, and even for country folk who could not stomach voting directly for Labor, he might spring a surprise - if he keeps Labor’s primary vote above 20%, he could accumulate every bodies primaries and end up growing over the top and win (which nearly happened in the recent Wagga Wagga byelection by the way ...) Andrew from Earlwoodhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09615617343547540790noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-40465488513740230912019-01-05T11:42:32.510+11:002019-01-05T11:42:32.510+11:00One factor that should be considered is how option...One factor that should be considered is how optional preferential tends to amplify the hammering that a political party that is truly on the nose: much of the drubbing that Labor got in 2011 was due to the votes that may otherwise have gone to Labor on preferences simply exhausting. <br /><br />I don’t think that 2015 was truly reflective of just how marginal some of these Liberal held seats are - in 2015 Labor was still suffering from its poor last three years in government, the Obeid factor was still fresh in people’s minds to a degree and Labor went into that election with a new and uninspiring leader in Luke Foley (especially when compared with Mike Baird). There is no way that a seat like Parramatta is genuinely a ‘safe’ seat with a 12% margin. Penrith is a lot closer than 6.2% that it appears on the election pendulum.<br /><br />In 2019 it will be the Liberals that will suffer from the optional preferential voting phenomenon. They are really on the nose in Sydney. Labor on the other hand will benefit from this anger - either they will pick up primary votes or, such is the anger with the liberals, people will likely preference Labor to makes sure their anti government votes counts.<br /><br />Andrew from Earlwoodhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09615617343547540790noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-40889093019810238562019-01-05T09:34:34.283+11:002019-01-05T09:34:34.283+11:00still the must read blog site on polling. Keep it ...still the must read blog site on polling. Keep it up Kev sorry Doctor KevNot Trampishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12738633092867411422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-36742486602844866042018-12-29T23:37:23.391+11:002018-12-29T23:37:23.391+11:00And cost it credibility with others - though I dou...And cost it credibility with others - though I doubt any of them would be predisposed to vote One Nation, so your point remains disturbingly valid.Mikehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09569372868831612962noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-91641982785124888022018-12-28T12:32:37.546+11:002018-12-28T12:32:37.546+11:00I think you might be underestimating the One Natio...I think you might be underestimating the One Nation threat in areas around the Hunter. At the 2016 Federal election the ONP candidate for Patterson (Graham Burston) polled 13%, and NSW elected an ONP Senator (Brian Burston). That without any local profile. At this election we'll see Mark Latham leading the party (up for election in the upper house), which will significantly raise their profile, and might even lend the party respectability in some circles.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02537910486414527809noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-11442236890641293592018-12-26T11:07:59.418+11:002018-12-26T11:07:59.418+11:00See https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-13/nsw-ele...See https://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-13/nsw-electoral-law-problem-of-randomly-elected-candidates/9022410Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-34968875171961953372018-12-26T09:55:30.031+11:002018-12-26T09:55:30.031+11:00what is random preference sampling and why is it r...what is random preference sampling and why is it ridiculous?Mickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02784376200127303021noreply@blogger.com