tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post1910789395969308596..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: 2013 Federal Election Late Counting: Tasmania SenateKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger34125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-67465256701697055602013-09-25T09:44:30.699+10:002013-09-25T09:44:30.699+10:00Those are very interesting figures. Sounds like t...Those are very interesting figures. Sounds like there is some proportion of micro-party vote that just goes BTL to a big bunch of micros in order to demote the majors. SEC and SOL I would expect to be "left" but gains on Shooters and ON are surprising. Perhaps right-wing micro voters don't perceive the Sex Party as all that "left".Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-49670328377242384802013-09-25T06:39:09.360+10:002013-09-25T06:39:09.360+10:00The right micros may not be as bad for the Sex Par...The right micros may not be as bad for the Sex Party as one might think.<br /><br />At the 2010 Victorian Senate election (the election with the most similar mix of parties to this election that I could find), the Sex Party gained 22.92% on Secular Party, 15.98% on Senator Online, 6.53% on Building Australia, 14.68% on Climate Sceptics, 7.68% on One Nation, 16.86% on Shooters, and 2.85% on LDP (though with no LDP candidate remaining). By those numbers, I mean that of all the non-ticket votes available, the Sex Party won that percentage more. For instance, the Sex Party got 1258 of the BTL votes held by the Shooters at their exclusion, and the ALP gained 572, of the 4070 total BTL votes, for a 16.86% gain by the Sex Party. If that happens with the Shooters ballots in this election, the Sex Party will gain 70 votes over Labor, and with Fishing and Lifestyle, a further 12 votes.<br /><br />Labor does better with the religious minor parties, but not significantly so. The ALP gained 1.71% on Family First and 3.46% on the Christian Democrats. The DLP candidate ended up elected so I don't know how it went.<br /><br />I'm still not confident the Sex Party will get enough to pass the ALP, but that's substantially better with the right/libertarian BTLs than I would have thought. Sex will still probably need to do very well on Pirate, Hemp, Burnet and Ann BTLs plus have a 8-9% leak from Labor, and I don't know if they'll get it, but I do think it's going to be exceptionally close.<br /><br />We could end up with the interesting situation of Labor scrutineers trying to get ALP ballots ruled informal in a recount so that the Sex Party can pass them, which would be pretty funny, if not exactly truly democratic.Christopher Burgehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18352344079470009077noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-57709686685443766002013-09-24T13:08:13.576+10:002013-09-24T13:08:13.576+10:00It's the "and to at least tie Labor on BT...It's the "and to at least tie Labor on BTLs from the other parties." that seems more likely than not to be the killer for me. Even if the gap on BTLs is at the lower end because of high Labor leakage, making it likely Swan closes the gap on the surplus of the left parties, I do not see how he can avoid dropping votes to Labor trickle by trickle on the preferences of the right parties. Family First preferences, for instance, will go to Labor to some small degree but virtually none will go to Swan. Even if the loss is, say, a hundred votes, I'm not convinced Swan can get enough from the sympathetic parties to take the lead by that much.<br /><br />I am a little surprised that with the gap as high as 795 he doesn't come out as more competitive but I guess that is down to the increase in the size of the count.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-41286362696911043492013-09-24T07:17:22.986+10:002013-09-24T07:17:22.986+10:00I'm surprised Sex made such a late run to make...I'm surprised Sex made such a late run to make things interesting. Looking at the numbers, it's likely Labor will win by <100 votes, <i>unless</i> Labor leakage is higher than in the past. <br /><br />Based on 2004 preference flows, Thorp will get 14,088 votes from Labor voters (surpluses + Thorp and Dowling first preferences). She'd also pick up 8 votes from Liberal surpluses, giving 14,096, and leaving Swan 451 behind before the other BTLs are considered.<br /><br />I don't know if Swan can make up 451 votes with the BTLs available. That would be 38% of the BTLs from Sex 2, HEMP, Independents, SPP, and Pirates--if Labor gets no votes there whatsoever. If Labor gets 10% of those votes, Sex would need 48% of the BTLs from those 5 parties, and to at least tie Labor on BTLs from the other parties. I think Greens would pick up a sizable number, so I don't know if Sex can pull that off.<br /><br />I think the key number would be a 10% leak rate from Labor 1 BTLs. If Labor leak less than 10%, I think Labor wins; if they leak more, I think Sex pulls it off. I think it's unlikely, though certainly not unthinkable, that Labor leaks 10%, so I think Labor will pull it off by a margin of around 50 votes.Christopher Burgehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18352344079470009077noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-89527204376185126342013-09-23T20:09:08.734+10:002013-09-23T20:09:08.734+10:00I don't think Chandler can feel really comfort...I don't think Chandler can feel really comfortable with any size of lead that's actually going to happen based on the few remaining votes to throw. There are so many uncertainties that even if it was, say, 2000, the Liberals would have reason to feel that they had the better chances, but not that they were by any means safe. I can't rule out that even 2500 could reasonably be overturned, although I do not think it's likely. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-76534661472319159722013-09-23T19:38:23.156+10:002013-09-23T19:38:23.156+10:00Kevin, do you have a rough estimate for how far LD...Kevin, do you have a rough estimate for how far LDP would need to be in front of PUP for Chandler to feel comfortable?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02297086397920888365noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-39013501513006571682013-09-20T22:42:43.372+10:002013-09-20T22:42:43.372+10:00Actual quota. I switched to using actual quota no...Actual quota. I switched to using actual quota not long ago and said I'd try to keep figures in actual quota from now on.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-83049759151690021872013-09-20T22:38:34.359+10:002013-09-20T22:38:34.359+10:00You may have mentioned it in your article (sorry i...You may have mentioned it in your article (sorry if i've missed it), but, is the 495 lead based on actual quota or calculator quota? Actual quota will be, of course 50 higher, which reduces the ALP vote by 100, and increases the SXP lead by 100.Truth Seekerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05272077261033925542noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-37930011152960749952013-09-20T22:24:21.918+10:002013-09-20T22:24:21.918+10:00Excellent analysis Chris. I've biffed another...Excellent analysis Chris. I've biffed another hundred off my estimate of the minimum SXP need to win, and made lengthy comments in the main article. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-51896230800875194772013-09-20T21:19:33.086+10:002013-09-20T21:19:33.086+10:00Thanks for the analysis. I have been watching this...Thanks for the analysis. I have been watching this blog closely and both the work of Kevin and the commentators has made for an exciting time. <br /><br />Sex Party are going to sneak homeClayton J Hawkinshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06593494181115504934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-39532971977843229662013-09-20T18:43:11.092+10:002013-09-20T18:43:11.092+10:00If the Labor preference flow below the line is sim...If the Labor preference flow below the line is similar to that of the last time Labor ran 4 candidates, in 2004, the Labor-Sex race could be even closer than it looks.<br /><br />Having a 4th candidate did not cause as much leakage in 2004 as I thought it would, as over 97% of votes that went to the 4th candidate (Wells) ended up back with the third candidate (Price) after Wells was excluded. I'd guess this is because most of those votes were 4-3-2-1 Labor. However, Polley lost nearly 6% of her BTL votes to other parties, and O'Brien lost over 9% of his (largely to Christine Milne). With the Greens #1 having less than a quota this time, we may see a similar leakage number this year.<br /><br />If the flows are the same as in 2004 (w/ O'Brien=Brown, Polley=Bilyk, etc), Labor will leak 256 BTL votes using the provisional quota. Thorp would be left with 14,189 votes, plus whatever she steals from other parties below the line. Singh stole 1689 BTL votes in 2010, but that was a good year for Labor, with Greens #1 already elected, and with 20% BTL votes. I would be surprised if Thorp steals more than a couple of hundred votes.<br /><br />At 14,189 for Thorp, Swan would need to hold just 45% of the BTL votes the calculator's crediting him. That might be tough (I doubt he'll get many BTL prefs from Shooters, F&L, or Country Alliance), but it's far more reachable than the 75-80% that Antony Green's most recent blog post suggests he needs (Green's model presupposes that Thorp will hold 95% of Brown and Bilyk BTL voters, and I doubt that very much).<br /><br />There is also the possibility of Swan stealing BTL votes that the calculator sends to different parties. For instance, I think Swan will see a substantial share of the 479 Pirates BTL votes rather than those going to Whish-Wilson (isn't that what your ballot did, Dr Bonham?). As an aside, 25% of Pirates voters went below the line, quite impressive given the <10% overall, and the fact that their ATL process is by far the most transparent and representative in the country.<br /><br />I think that the Sex-ALP count will ultimately be decided by fewer than a hundred votes either way, and it may be too close to call right up to the moment the button is pushed. At this stage, I think Thorp will beat Swan, but the Sex lead keeps growing on the calculator and as it gets to 500+ territory I think Swan's chances grow exponentially with each additional vote. If Labor's BTL leakage rate is much higher than 6%, this race tightens significantly, and if it's anything above 9%, I think the Sex Party has it. <br /><br />The fact that it's so close at a key break point and that it's hard to make even educated guesses about how BTL votes will transfer, let alone create an effective or accurate model, is what makes this scenario so interesting. I think even with less than 1% of the vote to count we still may be waiting for a week to see who wins.Chrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17427428602391891510noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-78264668113741714562013-09-20T13:53:33.891+10:002013-09-20T13:53:33.891+10:00I would expect they had some kind of CSV feed from...I would expect they had some kind of CSV feed from the AEC and that in cases the update went through faster on their site than on the AEC's. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-87704809622469317262013-09-20T13:12:16.029+10:002013-09-20T13:12:16.029+10:00How is it possible for the ABC site to be ahead of...How is it possible for the ABC site to be ahead of the AEC's? MarkDuffetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01233001055906290984noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-52918415566289293852013-09-20T11:56:06.259+10:002013-09-20T11:56:06.259+10:00Cheers for that. I asked Antony Green as well and...Cheers for that. I asked Antony Green as well and here's what he added:<br /><br />"A re-count can be ordered if any critical cut-off would have made a difference. All the ATL votes would be brought to the central scrutiny centre and re-counted against the original tallies done in the offices of the Returning Officer. All informal votes rejected without being data entered would also be checked. The new totals would then be entered into the computer for each polling place and the preference distribution done again. If it is still close they can start checking the data entry of BTL votes as well. A close scrutiny of the tally sheets on the distribution of preferences would also be done to ensure there are no errors.<br /><br />It is a rare process but was undertaken for two Victorian Legislative Council Regions in 2006."Davehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08236477623325410948noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-79199354894870927782013-09-20T11:20:41.908+10:002013-09-20T11:20:41.908+10:00For the House of Representatives there is an autom...For the House of Representatives there is an automatic threshhold - a margin under 100 votes is automatically recounted. Margins above that may be recounted depending if there is good reason. For the Senate there are general provisions (see http://www.aec.gov.au/elections/candidates/candidates-handbook/recounts.htm) but there is no specific cutoff that I am aware of. So there is certainly provision. I expect that if a <100 vote difference occurred between competing micros at a very early stage of a Senate count there would be reluctance to recount it (unless extremely close) given the reduced chance of an error where fewer ballot papers were involved. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-81439300355353082282013-09-20T09:17:20.263+10:002013-09-20T09:17:20.263+10:00Just wondering if there is precedent or provision ...Just wondering if there is precedent or provision for a recount because a 'critical count' is very close? A few votes at an intermediate stage could mean 2 different people elected in WA or 1 of 2 other candidates in TAS, but the final result might not be close enough to indicate a recount could change things.Davehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08236477623325410948noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-53378696157379339922013-09-19T13:01:35.712+10:002013-09-19T13:01:35.712+10:00Yes when I added it up two days ago in preparing t...Yes when I added it up two days ago in preparing the BTL analysis it came to slightly less than 10% as well (at that time slightly over 30K total of unapportioned and known BTL). It does seem that the early publicly-circulating estimates of 11% then 10.5% and 36,000 BTL entries were a bit high. <br /><br />If it goes down much further, ie if a significant portion of the remaining Unapportioneds are not BTLs, then I'll have to revise my estimates as concerns the LDP-PUP gap. Which seems to be really where the action is as the Sex Party isn't building enough of a lead and probably won't at this rate.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-42610717555311165652013-09-19T12:46:36.358+10:002013-09-19T12:46:36.358+10:00I'm getting total BTL at 7.38% Unapportioned a...I'm getting total BTL at 7.38% Unapportioned at 2.05% (Midday 19th). So your information on BTL percentages may be out, or may have been changed by the addition of postals etc. <br /><br />Suggests a maximum BTL of ~ 9.4%, not counting any votes yet to be added.<br /><br /><br /><br />intuitivereasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15444634755480881972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-62445279581523350052013-09-18T18:13:19.203+10:002013-09-18T18:13:19.203+10:00Nice work. Yes, the inter-ticket leakage from Lab...Nice work. Yes, the inter-ticket leakage from Labor will be higher than I thought. There will also be some leakage from the Liberal ticket, which I haven't taken into account as the Liberals are not really in any specific close race (and looking at 2010 it was not worth much for Labor anyway.)Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-61366772269191028312013-09-18T17:52:41.752+10:002013-09-18T17:52:41.752+10:00Having gone back and looked at the data from 2010 ...Having gone back and looked at the data from 2010 (didn't have the time to analyze all the BTL ballots, but the general DoP trends), it's possible Labor may leak more than 100 votes.<br /><br />In 2010, Polley lost 6.6% of BTL papers to other parties, and Urquhart lost 6.8% of BTL papers (her own first preferences and 1 Polley 2 Urquhart BTL). The division of BTL votes is broadly similar this year, with about 60% of Labor BTL voters giving first preferences to Brown or Bilyk. With an expected transfer value of around 0.55 for Brown and 0.10 for Bilyk, and the same leakage rate as last year, Labor will lose around 176 votes to other parties or exhaustion.<br /><br />This doesn't account for the fact that Labor couldn't leak much to the Greens in 2010 because Milne had already been elected, but this year can leak to Whish-Wilson. That could increase the number of Brown and Bilyk voters that leak to Greens. Labor's BTL rate is down from 15.3% to 7.4%, and my hunch would be that people who shifted from BTL to ATL would have been more likely to vote 1-2-3-4 Labor when they did vote BTL, so the remaining BTL voters may have a higher leak rate.<br /><br />I don't know what influence Labor having a 4th candidate will play. My prediction would be that Dowling's BTL vote is largely people who voted 4-3-2-1 Labor, and so almost all of it will flow to Thorp and not other parties when he's excluded.<br /><br />My guess is that all this put together means that Labor may leak somewhere around 200-250 votes. That's almost certainly not going to be enough for the Sex Party to pass them unless those votes are leaking directly to the Sex Party (doubtful). The final count may come down to the button, but from the looks of things Labor should hold on and Swan will be excluded.Chrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17427428602391891510noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-84571691343270458792013-09-18T12:32:35.775+10:002013-09-18T12:32:35.775+10:00My past experience is that the rate of within-part...My past experience is that the rate of within-party BTL leakage in Senate voting tends to be very low indeed, although it does happen to a very small degree. If there is some then Thorp is potentially at risk of leakage on the BTLs from Brown and Bilyk but those get reduced in value (greatly in the case of those that go through Bilyk). Likely to have <100 votes impact and probably much less.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-51107102356747703012013-09-18T12:27:12.549+10:002013-09-18T12:27:12.549+10:00Apologies for the delay clearing the above - I am ...Apologies for the delay clearing the above - I am still having the problem with not getting emails for all comments.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-65591670375848721312013-09-18T12:24:49.421+10:002013-09-18T12:24:49.421+10:00Yep, this will be fixed. Lost count of the number...Yep, this will be fixed. Lost count of the number of times I've said one when I meant the other!Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-88242041544417907952013-09-18T11:13:45.862+10:002013-09-18T11:13:45.862+10:00You wrote: "Lastly, there is the Pirate Party...You wrote: "Lastly, there is the Pirate Party. This is an odd one, because their <b>below-the-line preferences</b> go to the Greens and then to the LDP."<br />Did you mean "above-the-line" in this sentence? I don't understand how they can direct BTLs.Grahamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01320298282537834217noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-25619296820687441642013-09-17T23:07:34.455+10:002013-09-17T23:07:34.455+10:00Has there been any detail on how the BTLs are brea...Has there been any detail on how the BTLs are breaking released so far? I'd be very interested to see if Lin Thorp suffered any preference leakage, given her defeat the last time she faced the electors and her seeming unpopularity as a minister. Is there any chance that Labor first prefs could leak away from Thorp and give the Sex Party the lead on the ALP-ASP break point? Or is there no way of knowing that until they press the button?Chrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17427428602391891510noreply@blogger.com