tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post1747883623013574140..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: Eden-Monaro Late Live Comments And Post-CountKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-8737563544419684862020-07-08T18:35:08.189+10:002020-07-08T18:35:08.189+10:00Ta, I'd noticed and fixed that one while you w...Ta, I'd noticed and fixed that one while you were commenting. The 2018 Wentworth by-election did cost the government its majority leaving it with 75/150 seats assuming that you treat Kevin Hogan as a member of the government despite him sitting on the crossbench (I do as he remained a member of the National Party). The 2017 Bennelong by-election could have had the same effect but didn't.<br /><br />After the 1940 election the Menzies government held 36/74 and relied on two independents. Two by-elections were held that could have reduced that number to 35, which might have brought down the government or forced it to go to a snap election. The government won both but was eventually brought down anyway. In the parliaments following the 1913, 1961 and 2010 elections no government seats went to by-elections. The Hughes government following the 1919 election was one seat short of a majority and lost another in a by-election before regaining one, but at no stage were the numbers close to there to remove it. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-2263356383603329392020-07-08T18:04:59.534+10:002020-07-08T18:04:59.534+10:00Latest update Thursday 5:30? Have you dragged out ...Latest update Thursday 5:30? Have you dragged out the ouija board or the crystal ball? On a serious note has there ever been a by-election where the winner could have brought down the government or result in a hung parliament if the governments candidate had lost? Barryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08664699802718952449noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-43748910790862382192020-07-05T11:59:00.893+10:002020-07-05T11:59:00.893+10:00Who do you think will take out 3rd place out of Sh...Who do you think will take out 3rd place out of Shooters, Nats and Greens once all the preferences are thrown? There's dispute over whether the Greens had a very bad night, or if it all be explained by drift to single issue parties for the byelection (with those votes presumably coming back in the general).Johnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03536933978795184627noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-76004066016309917942020-07-04T23:37:11.126+10:002020-07-04T23:37:11.126+10:00My prediction is looking better with the first bat...My prediction is looking better with the first batch of postals. --DVCUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02537910486414527809noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-15801258472724620072020-07-04T21:00:19.750+10:002020-07-04T21:00:19.750+10:00I have never seen a scientific analysis of the imp...I have never seen a scientific analysis of the impact of party postals on postal vote flow patterns. One would suspect there is some impact, but a party postal is just one collected by a party, it does not commit the voter to voting for that party. As for prepolls we will see, I see no particular reason for them to swing differently to the booth votes, but they may. (There wasn't much in that in the Queensland by-elections.)Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-78928572748979116322020-07-04T20:12:38.700+10:002020-07-04T20:12:38.700+10:00What are you expecting when the pre-polls and post...What are you expecting when the pre-polls and postals come in? Labor has increased its postals 100x (40 to 4000). So, that's likely to cause a swing in postals. If that's not accounted for presently, I'd expect this to blow out the result.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02537910486414527809noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-64307579766699172412020-07-04T16:01:49.655+10:002020-07-04T16:01:49.655+10:00Don't apologize for not starting till 8pm Kevi...Don't apologize for not starting till 8pm Kevin. At general elections all the channels start their "coverage" soon after 6 and spend anything from 60 to 90 minutes saying "it's early days yet.... early days yet... early days yet". It's brilliantly summed up in the Election Grandstand sequence in The Rise and Rise of Michael Rimmer, where the compere asks a pollster what he thinks of the situation and he replies "Well frankly Stephen I think we've started an hour too early". I'll send you a video clip, which should be shared with all election pundits.Jack Arandahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06210027164177789357noreply@blogger.com