tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post1380959859407891000..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: Batman: A Unique Federal By-ElectionKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger29125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-20082981504444393092018-03-17T21:44:06.047+11:002018-03-17T21:44:06.047+11:00OK, so this is exactly why Dr Kevin Bonham is empl...OK, so this is exactly why Dr Kevin Bonham is employed, and I am not.... :-)<br />Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06030021311779507460noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-55014694456051005992018-03-13T01:26:12.760+11:002018-03-13T01:26:12.760+11:00No, but as someone who (I assume) has studied univ...No, but as someone who (I assume) has studied university level statistics, it’s about averages & trends. Of course not all One Nation voters are idiots & all Greens voters Einsteinian. But a major side effect of education is, one would hope, to develop critical thinking. You won’t get your PhD if you lack a logically constructed argument in your thesis. Hence, I think it’s fair to extrapolate that those of higher education would have developed better levels of critical thinking. Critical thinking takes effort - you need to join more cognitive dots. In my strong opinion, the Greens do not provide simple solutions to society’s struggles. They are anti-populist.<br />FYI, 2013 Roy Morgan research looked at the top ten job types for Liberal, Labor & Greens Party voters. Only the Greens had voters within these top 10 jobs that required a PhD.<br />Then there’s the 2013 research of over 13,000 scientists in the USA who held a PhD. The overwhelming percentage voted Progressive (left wing) or the party that has typically represented the progressive side (the Democrats)Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08905351963546327273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-31194645956048306052018-03-11T20:20:42.174+11:002018-03-11T20:20:42.174+11:00Hmmm, I've encountered plenty of imperviousnes...Hmmm, I've encountered plenty of imperviousness to facts and oversimplification in my time - a great deal of it from certain Greens supporters (especially in my Tasmanian Times days) and sometimes even the odd Greens MPs or two. So by this argument I would be compelled to "self soothe" and switch off in the same manner. I just don't accept that such a generalisation can apply universally.<br /><br />Also, findings about intelligence and qualification are only tendencies. (Ditto about links between religious belief and education levels.) It really should be obvious to intelligent people from all party backgrounds that not everyone supporting the major parties is stupid or incapable of a reasoned argument.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-27147883815503548412018-03-11T20:05:53.231+11:002018-03-11T20:05:53.231+11:00In my experience the Australian Greens supporter b...In my experience the Australian Greens supporter base is divided between environmentalists who have been in the party from it's foundation and people who used to be on the left wing of the Labor Party. The Greens aren't the only party to have such a diverse supporter base, both the Liberals and Labor do as well.<br /><br />Personally we need to move away from a two party system and have a multi-party system. Consisting on the right a National Party which becomes more a Socially Conservative than just a country Party appealing to people in provincial cities and the outer suburbs of major cities. The Liberal Party being more small 'l' than it is now and being more appealing to Middle Class voters in the major cities and Labor shifting leftwards to attract the supporters it has lost to the Australian Greens. The Greens would be reduced quite a fair bit, however it can re-ordinate into a more purely environmentalist party than it is currently.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-27416354230314822762018-03-11T18:13:33.430+11:002018-03-11T18:13:33.430+11:00The reason it occurs, Kevin, is because people of ...The reason it occurs, Kevin, is because people of higher intelligence get frustrated with the of the position/worldview of those of more ‘simplistic’ bent. The greater the disparity in ideology, the greater the frustration (eg Greens cf. One Nation).<br />When you repeatedly see & hear oversimplification of issues, it eventually gets to you. There is also quite a bit of psychological research to show that people are impervious to facts & actually become more stubborn to accepting facts the more confronting they are (eg: Conservatives & anthropogenic global warming).<br />So what does a Greens voter do when a person is simplistic & they are impervious to facts? Eventually, to deal with the frustration, one must ‘self soothe’. This self soothing ‘resolution’ comes in the form of being “intellectually & morally superior” & switching off, so to speak.<br />I am more blunt about it - I choose not to “throw my pearls to pigs”Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08905351963546327273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-54512452149681477882018-03-11T16:51:38.486+11:002018-03-11T16:51:38.486+11:00I have seen some now and then but it's not rea...I have seen some now and then but it's not really all that relevant to my statement. Neither higher than average intelligence nor higher than average education (both of which I'd say Greens supporters do possess on average) seem to be antidotes to the attitude I mentioned.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-51712911270060586582018-03-11T14:23:04.529+11:002018-03-11T14:23:04.529+11:00“...the Greens more than any other party seem to a...“...the Greens more than any other party seem to attract a certain kind of supporter who is totally one-eyed in their belief that their party is intellectually and morally superior to all other parties and that anyone who cannot see this has something wrong with them...”<br /><br />Are you aware of the peer reviewed & polling research on IQ, education, brain composition & it’s correlation to political ideology?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08905351963546327273noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-47846604743806210262018-03-09T20:50:26.774+11:002018-03-09T20:50:26.774+11:00I first heard that Batman had a namesake city in T...I first heard that Batman had a namesake city in Turkey in the 1990s, when I lived in Batman and a local Turk told me. A claim has been made on Facebook that the Mayor of Batman in Turkey objected to the use of the name in Australia, for he is of the opinion that it gives his city a bad name, for the John Batman it is named after died from syphilis, apart from his other misdeeds. The ultra-left on the Northcote Council, located within Batman, tried to change the name of a Batman Park in Northcote in the 1980s because it offended local Aborigines. Bruce Ruxton, high-profile Victorian RSL President complained, as did the local Lions Club, and the proposal was scrapped. Bruce Ruxton is no longer with us, and a new Darebin Council, for the Northcote Council hasn't existed since Jeff Kennett abolished it in 1994, is controlled by the Greens and they are doing what the ultra-left ALP Northcote Council couldn't. Batman Park is being re-named and no doubt the Mayor of Batman in Turkey, as well as local Aborigines, are happy. This time the Northcote Lions Club, supposed to be non-political, raised no objection. Alex Bhathal is facing opposition within her own party, mainly from Greens Darebin Councillors I understand who think the Greens should have picked one of their own. The ALP used to carry on like this in the area, so it's nothing new. The ALP Councillors were often up themselves, but there are not many in the area now. The Greens have to be favourites, with no Liberal candidate. Cory's candidate, backed by my namesake Lyle Shelton, formerly of the Australian Christian Lobby, is giving his preferences to the ALP. It remains to be seen how many votes he gets but he doesn't have the same profile as the candidates from the ALP and the Greens. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08792598969843397672noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-44859589818117852972018-02-27T13:51:12.915+11:002018-02-27T13:51:12.915+11:00OK, so here’s why think the Greens will have a big...OK, so here’s why think the Greens will have a big win. And, yes, OK, if the ALP get over the line, or it’s close, you can have a good laugh at my expense….<br />(1) The Greens topped first preferences at the last election. Running the same candidate, who is local and very well-known, and has made almost no mistakes, there are very few reasons for previous Green voters to shift their votes.<br />(2) Some ALP voters at the last election may have voted as they did to ensure the Libs did not win. This is not a possibility this time, as the Libs are not running a candidate. Some, perhaps as many as 10%, could be expected to drift to the Greens.<br />(3) The backflipping by the ALP re the Carmichael mine cannot possibly have helped their vote, and may well have harmed it.<br />(4) All Liberal voters at the last election are forced with a choice. Sure, some will vote for the Australian Conservatives, but the important point is whether they then direct their preference to an ALP-ACTU candidate brought in from outside, or a local Greens candidate. I would expect 60-40 or thereabouts to the Greens.<br />(5) Of the six minor party candidates, I would expect a 65-35 split in preferences to the Greens - ALP.<br />(6) Since the last election, there has been a significant churn of residents, with many existing locals moving out of the area for various reasons, and an influx of younger voters, who are much more likely to vote Green.<br />Yup, big win for the Green’s candidate…<br />Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06030021311779507460noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-35027118460521406052018-02-25T21:40:41.605+11:002018-02-25T21:40:41.605+11:00I agree with your assessments. However in a by-ele...I agree with your assessments. However in a by-election this close, there is a chance it could decide the by-election.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-10291649045739248862018-02-25T21:25:32.171+11:002018-02-25T21:25:32.171+11:00These days the donkey vote is not worth much - hal...These days the donkey vote is not worth much - half a percent in most seats if that. Still, better to have it than not have it.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-54230908123126237892018-02-25T21:11:43.874+11:002018-02-25T21:11:43.874+11:00The result in Melbourne Ports at the 2016 was extr...The result in Melbourne Ports at the 2016 was extremely close. Because if the Green candidate Steph Hodgins-May had won an extra 477 votes at the last election, she would have edged Michael Danby out of second place and if the Labor preferences flowed like they did in the neighbouring electorate of Higgins. The Greens would have won Melbourne Ports by 3000 votes. <br /><br />Melbourne Ports is more like Melbourne being almost completely gentrified as opposed to Batman and Wills which are only half so.<br /><br />http://insidestory.org.au/labors-narrow-escape-in-melbourne-ports-and-a-preference-problem-for-the-coalition/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-32286611569085346282018-02-25T21:02:12.582+11:002018-02-25T21:02:12.582+11:00I am predicting a Labor victory, however the margi...I am predicting a Labor victory, however the margin will be a very slim one. A Greens victory is not out of the question, however the margin they win by will be very narrow. The strong Green booths south of bell street with cancelled by the strong Labor ones North of Bell street. Batman is an electorate that goes deep into the migrant heavy Northern suburbs (right up nearly to Thomastown in the North) of Melbourne.<br /><br />It is notable at the last federal election Bhathal (4th) was ahead of Feeney (7th) on the Ballot paper. While at this by-election Kearney (2nd) is ahead of Bhathal (3rd). I believe there is a good chance the donkey vote will decide who wins the by-election. It was notable that Linda Thorpe (3rd) was ahead on the ballot paper for the Northcote by-election ahead of Clare Burns (9th).<br /><br />Anyway Batman is a lot like Wills, the Greens could win both in the future, especially if gentrification gradually proceeds further northwards beyond Bell Street in both electorates. However I believe Melbourne Ports is the next seat the Greens will win, if say a redistribution this year removes the Northern half of Caulfield from Melbourne Ports and the South Yarra-Prahran area is added then it is possible the Greens could win it. Adding that area will increase the Greens vote enough, while Labor's vote won't increase from it. In the 2016 Labor only lead the Greens on the primary vote by 3.21%, a redisturbtion like that would make both parties at least notionally equal on the primary votes.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-32353940480429167702018-02-25T20:28:03.870+11:002018-02-25T20:28:03.870+11:00At matching ordinary booths I get 58.9% in the 201...At matching ordinary booths I get 58.9% in the 2016 Reps election vs 57.8% in the by-election, so a similar sort of comparison. Also the Greens' performance on other vote types (collectively) was worse at the by-election, probably because of the reduced scope for absent voting - so one might argue on that basis that Lonergan's 53-47 is about right. On the other hand, that contest was new candidate vs new candidate, whereas Batman is five times candidate vs new candidate from out of the electorate (albeit with a very high profile). <br /><br />It's interesting; a lot of people think the Greens are going to win easily but modelling based arguments can be made either way.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-42444657253512566332018-02-25T19:07:34.905+11:002018-02-25T19:07:34.905+11:00I believe Labour will win the by-election since th...I believe Labour will win the by-election since the Greens margin of victory at the Northcote by-election last year was 5.6%. The state district of Northcote makes up less than half of the federal division of Batman. It was obvious that the Greens won all but one of the booths south of Bell street at the 2016 federal election that Northcote would be a seat the Greens would eventually win. However Labor win every booth North of Bell Street. <br /><br />A guy on the tallyroom blog did a rough estimate of the Greens having approximately 57.5% of the two party preferred vote in the booths comprising the state district of Northcote at the 2006 election. So if he is right Labor might actually get a slight swing towards them, especially given the Greens were at the top of the ballot at the Northcote by-election and Labor at the Batman by-election.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-34314875373533811702018-02-25T17:34:45.465+11:002018-02-25T17:34:45.465+11:00Not sure if that comment was addressed to anyone i...Not sure if that comment was addressed to anyone in particular but I'm certainly not suggesting that. The issue with landline polling is that while you will get some voters from all parties using landlines, you'll get a skewed base sample - skewed towards older voters, and in Lonergan's case females. It's especially a problem because one of the big demographics for the Greens is 18-25, but a landline poll catches few of those and an atypical sample of them. Polls can try to correct this using demographic weightings, as Newspoll did successfully at the 2013 federal election, but in the last few years reputable pollsters have generally avoided landline-only polling. It is risky because the response rates you get in certain demographics are so tiny that you have to multiply a few voters by a very large amount in the final calculation, and this creates massive potential for random error. <br /><br />Whether that error also skews in any one direction isn't clear and is beside the point - the point is that if a 53-47 result is really +/- 10 points not +/- 4 because of weighting issues then it is not very informative. Pollsters seldom admit to the impact of weighting issues on what they claim to be their margins of error.<br /><br />People who answer landlines do tend to skew conservative on average, primarily by reason of age - for instance I have tables for a Lonergan for the NSW state election 2015 where the base L-NP vote was 53%, which was scaled down to 47% after weighting (the actual result was 45.6%). In that case the Labor vote was little affected by scaling while the Greens and Others votes were scaled up. I am certain raw landline samples will on average also skew to Labor compared to the Greens because of the undersampling of very young voters. That doesn't mean the final results will necessarily share that skew - just that they will be erratic as hell.<br /><br />In my experience all parties attract fanatical supporters - on Twitter I encounter a lot of unreasoning Labor partisans who believe every poll they do not like is a Murdoch plot. However the Greens more than any other party seem to attract a certain kind of supporter who is totally one-eyed in their belief that their party is intellectually and morally superior to all other parties and that anyone who cannot see this has something wrong with them. This kind of supporter does not do their party any favours. Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-32374688900008034362018-02-25T15:58:00.354+11:002018-02-25T15:58:00.354+11:00Are you actually suggesting no Greens voters in Ba...Are you actually suggesting no Greens voters in Batman have landlines? Or that only Labor voters have landlines? That's the old saw usually applied to Lib/Lab square-offs, where anyone with a landline is seen, probably wrongly, as being a doddering old conservative. Are we really saying in this poll Labor voters are cast as role-playing cliched Tories? This by-election is weird. All it shows, if the hostile chatter on social media is any guide, is that Greens supporters are a rather angry, unreasoning bunch, with a mindset bordering on a kind of insular fanaticism, found otherwise only amongst Nationals and One Nation supporters.Metta Bhavanahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16397208576080589986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-52175281989437168492018-02-25T12:52:19.596+11:002018-02-25T12:52:19.596+11:00Might be so. I think even among the sub-20% who w...Might be so. I think even among the sub-20% who would normally vote Liberal there would be many who would baulk at voting AC.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-76197848691286814012018-02-25T12:36:46.909+11:002018-02-25T12:36:46.909+11:00I don't know what the AC vote will be, but I d...I don't know what the AC vote will be, but I do note that the Lib Dems (who even have "Liberal" in their name) only managed 4% in Northcote. I know AC is more high-profile, but still - possible they will only get single figures. (I know, I know, Northcote =/ Batman.)Geoffreyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02047145278279336626noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-72515105266960746672018-02-25T10:20:55.603+11:002018-02-25T10:20:55.603+11:00(A note re Unknown posters - I don't know why ...(A note re Unknown posters - I don't know why some posters come through as Unknown. Clicking on the word Unknown will often establish if they are known unknowns or unknown unknowns.)<br /><br />I expect the AC vote to be lower than the past Liberal vote, probably in the low double figures. Their presence does assist Labor if they do preference Labor and make some effort to hand out cards.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-74314482889151308112018-02-25T08:42:10.739+11:002018-02-25T08:42:10.739+11:00The entry of the Conservatives will help the ALP. ...The entry of the Conservatives will help the ALP. I expect the other six candidates' recommendations will split 4/2 Greens/ALP. I still expect a big win to the Greens.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06030021311779507460noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-26161812461710410722018-02-25T04:03:38.928+11:002018-02-25T04:03:38.928+11:00My bet here is that the Australian Conservative vo...My bet here is that the Australian Conservative voto should be between 9-19% in their second attempt at a lower house seat, with no Liberal candidate this should be achievable.<br />Result will be a close call my tip is Australian Greens by a coin flipAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04354169072105056642noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-11669373476266204062018-02-15T22:16:45.438+11:002018-02-15T22:16:45.438+11:00Alex Bhathal is the local image of integrity and c...Alex Bhathal is the local image of integrity and compassion. Kearney starrs by givibg up her principles on refugees and is not a local. The choice is clear!Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04344496748348828211noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-71873207399742340022018-02-15T22:14:15.820+11:002018-02-15T22:14:15.820+11:00The problem with Ged Kearney as an ALP candidate i...The problem with Ged Kearney as an ALP candidate is that shecis not a local and is being parachuted into Batmam. Bigger problem is an ever increasingly discerning electorate th et will resent her giving up on her principles to gain preselection and the fact that her poor role in protecting penalty rates is well known. Another big issue is that Adani is seen as a LABOR mine and Kearney will follow Shorten's orders and support it. Political death sentence to appear as a Shorten's puppet again....Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04344496748348828211noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-53929546335791175092018-02-12T14:57:57.543+11:002018-02-12T14:57:57.543+11:00This will be a massive win for the Greens. The AL...This will be a massive win for the Greens. The ALP have chosen a candidate, who, whatever her merits, will not attract those who normally vote for the Coalition. In fact I would suggest that Coalition voters faced with the choice between voting for the ALP with a ACTU candidate or a Greens candidate will vote overwhelmingly for the latter.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06030021311779507460noreply@blogger.com