tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post1080088019074563524..comments2024-03-28T14:16:10.498+11:00Comments on Dr Kevin Bonham: 2016 House of Reps Postcount: CowperKevin Bonhamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-60212879283200810322016-07-28T10:54:09.424+10:002016-07-28T10:54:09.424+10:00As I live in Denison I've been watching that f...As I live in Denison I've been watching that for a long time and these people used to be extremely strong for the Greens and will still vote strongly for the Greens when nothing else captures their imagination. They definitely prefer Wilkie to the Greens and at this election a lot of them switched from the Greens to Team Save Lisa, including many who normally treat the ALP with contempt.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-88042507782045415612016-07-28T08:42:31.684+10:002016-07-28T08:42:31.684+10:00It appears in Tasmania (centred mostly around Hoba...It appears in Tasmania (centred mostly around Hobart) there is a voting demographic that could be considered centre-left to left socially, but appear not to be getting on board the Greens train. This appears to be the "base" for people like Wilkie and Lisa Singh. I think these results do send a message that there is a growing group of people who are not aligned with party politics, and that parties need to stop focusing on their opponents and focus on the people.Jamiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02279311494127044640noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-31529843959205874002016-07-05T18:46:14.378+10:002016-07-05T18:46:14.378+10:00HINDMARSH, SA
On about 50% of the postals LNP has ...HINDMARSH, SA<br />On about 50% of the postals LNP has picked up net 298 votes cutting ALP lead to 347<br />Do it again for the other 50% of votes and that becomes 49 votes<br /><br />Then you still have 1865 Absentee and 890 Declaration<br /><br />Definitely going to be close and could go either wayMatt Adamshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05568486110321611057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-91827288850861196992016-07-05T18:30:40.822+10:002016-07-05T18:30:40.822+10:00That's not bad - the Coalition only outperform...That's not bad - the Coalition only outperformed ordinaries on postals in 2013 by 4 points in Eden-Monaro. However early-counted postals can be stronger for the Coalition than late ones.Kevin Bonhamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06845545257440242894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-58950978960857056032016-07-05T18:09:15.602+10:002016-07-05T18:09:15.602+10:00COWPER,NSW
Couple more big booths added dropping O...COWPER,NSW<br />Couple more big booths added dropping Oakeshott to 67.6% -- he now needs 88% over the balance which is near impossible.<br /><br />So think this is LNP and maybe a 10,000 vote win.<br /><br />--<br />GREY, SA<br />Also now have data for 20 booths (about 16% of the formal count) for Grey. NXT have 67.5% of the preferences, but now need 75% of the balance.<br /><br />So again an LNP win by 6000 votes<br /><br />--<br />EDEN MONARO, NSW<br />Not a seat in doubt but an initial tally of 980 postal votes has been added. These have split 56%/44% to the LNP versus 46%/54% on the ordinary votes -- that would be a trend the LNP is hoping for I suspectMatt Adamshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05568486110321611057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4052593945054595675.post-28268590533399843002016-07-05T16:29:26.396+10:002016-07-05T16:29:26.396+10:00Another three booths added including Bonville (wit...Another three booths added including Bonville (with 1144 formal votes) putt Hartsuyker ahead by almost 300 votes. The nine booths now skew more to Hartsuyker than the overall 1P.<br /><br />Has dropped Oakeshotts average over nine booths to 72.1%, which would give a 54%/46% 2PP and a 7250 or so vote winMatt Adamshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05568486110321611057noreply@blogger.com