Wednesday, October 31, 2018

Not-A-Poll: Best State Premiers Of The Past 40 Years: Round 2

Two months ago I started a round of Best State Premier Not-A-Polls.  Winners from each state will eventually go through to an elimination-style final similar to my Best Prime Minister series.  Also the skew in this site's reader base (and that's probably not the only cause) led to Labor Premiers winning round 1 in every state, so I am starting a Best Non-Labor Premier/Chief Minister runoff as well.

As it has turned out six states have finished up with two-candidate runoffs.  The first named was the round 1 winner in every case except Queensland which was a tie.

NSW Neville Wran vs Bob Carr
Victoria Steve Bracks vs Daniel Andrews (postponed to January to reduce Vic election contamination)
Queensland Peter Beattie vs Wayne Goss
Western Australia Geoff Gallop vs Carmen Lawrence
Tasmania Jim Bacon vs Lara Giddings
ACT Katy Gallagher vs Jon Stanhope

All these runoffs will go for one month.  (Voting in the sidebar, closes 6 pm Nov 30.)



Two candidates win their states/territories and advance directly to the final by outright majority:

SA Don Dunstan
NT Clare Martin

Daniel Andrews is the only current Premier still in the contest.

It was possible for a candidate to win their state in the first round without winning an absolute majority (based on the threshhold rules).  For a while it looked like Gallagher would do this in the ACT, and Bacon was close in Tasmania but neither got there.

Qualifiers for Best Non-Labor Premier have been decided by first-past-the-post (I think this is actually better than having open-primary style runoffs in this case, though the final can only be an open runoff).  They are:

NSW Nick Greiner
Victoria Jeff Kennett
Queensland Joh Bjelke-Petersen
Western Australia Colin Barnett
South Australia Steven Marshall
Tasmania Will Hodgman
ACT Kate Carnell
NT Paul Everingham

Two current Premiers made this list.

Best Non-Labor Premier will be determined by multi-candidate runoff.  To progress to the next round a candidate must:

* Obtain at least 8% of the vote
* Be capable of winning from that position if it was a preferential election (this automatically excludes the candidate in last place).

Given the open-primary nature of the vote I think I know who's going to win, but we will see!

The first round of this will go for one month. (Voting in the sidebar, closes 6 pm Nov 30.)

The full results of round 1 are posted below.




New South Wales

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Total Votes: 426


Victoria

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Total Votes: 431

Queensland

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Total Votes: 423


WA

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Total Votes: 302

SA

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Total Votes: 383

TAS

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Total Votes: 397


ACT

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

Total Votes: 263


Northern Territory (Total votes 217)
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

3 comments:

  1. Katy Gallagher was a very effective CM of the ACT, but she was Neil Harvey compared to Don Bradman when compared to Jon Stanhope,

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  2. Tom Playford should have made the SA Non-Labor list. How quickly memories fade.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Outside the time window of 40 years, which I chose because for premiers earlier than that few site readers will have a strong memory of them. With Prime Ministers it is a little bit different but even then I only went back 45 years.

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