This is just a brief explainer re a seat that is not in significant doubt but that is going to cause confusion. Please post comments on other seats to the thread below.
In the seat of Cowper (NSW), Rob Oakeshott took on the Nationals' Luke Hartsuyker in a last-minute raid that caused the Nationals a lot of panic especially with polls showing a very tight race. In 2013 this was a classic Coalition-vs-Labor seat. Because Oakeshott has made the final two in 2016, the AEC is conducting a realignment of the Cowper count by booth.
Because different booths have very different leanings, the sample of booths included in the realignment will cause the two-candidate preferred count between Hartsuyker and Oakeshott to move around a lot in the early stages before eventually settling down. After six booths Oakeshott is in the lead on that count, which may give an appearance he is winning.
In fact the reason for that appearance is that the colourfully-named collection of booths included in the realignment so far (Gleniffer, Hat Head, Mylestom, Taylors Arm, Thora, Kundabung) are slightly good booths for Oakeshott on average and especially poor booths on average for Hartsuyker.
Oakeshott has received 27.8% of votes in these booths compared with his overall 26.56% of primaries. Hartsuyker has received 40.8% compared with his overall 46.46%.
In these six booths Oakeshott is receiving 76% of preferences. However his target preference requirement is 87% and this will probably only steepen as postal votes improve Hartsuyker's position (something especially likely given Oakeshott's late decision to contest).
Despite the appearance of Oakeshott being in front, this will turn around as the realignment continues and Hartsuyker will retain the seat, probably with a margin of around 53:47 or perhaps slightly higher.
Update 4:40: Sure enough we have the turnaround already and Hartsuyker leads 55:45 in the realignment after just 9 booths. This will continue to move about but unless it is very close with, say, three quarters of booths counted, there is nothing to see here and you can all go back to sleep.