Saturday, January 31, 2015

Queensland Election Night Comments

Seats Apparently Won: LNP 39 ALP 42 OTHER 3 
2 likely ALP:  Mt Ommaney, Ferny Grove
Unclear LNP vs ALP: Mansfield, Whitsunday
Unclear ALP vs IND: Maryborough

Outcome: ALP government highly likely, unclear whether in majority.  LNP minority government possible but currently looks unlikely.

10:55 Labor's real-count leads in Mt Ommaney and Ferny Grove are both at 1.1% now.  Those will be hard to close down even with the size of post-count and the LNP needs at least one of them if not both.

10:35 On last-election preferences the current primaries would pan out to about a 50.5% 2PP for the LNP which would probably just have been enough to retain office (especially with likely pickup on postals.) If Labor wins outright then it will likely be because the LNP has been a tad unlucky with the split of close seats as well.  A lot will be asked about why all the late polls were all 52:48, though that is not a particularly bad miss and well within each's margin of error.  It seems there's been a late swing to Labor as undecided voters made up their minds, though this factor is normally no friend of the ALP or oppositions generally.



10:20 The Green vote, currently running at 8.5%, has for once been at least comparable with their average polling, although it may drop back in post-counting.  A good effort in an election that gave them no oxygen.

10:15 Pumicestone appears to have gone now so that's one of the ALP's six in the hutch. One more of the four uncertain ALP-leads-LNP seats could be enough to govern without needing KAP, two definitely would.

10:00 Labor now projected ahead by ABC in 47, but these include Mt Ommaney (projected lead 1%), Ferny Grove (0.9), Pumicestone (0.5), Whitsunday (0.3), Mansfield (0.1) and Maryborough (exclusion order issue between Labor and Independent). None of these are completely cut and dried and a few others might spring to life but Labor have at least 41 and with the LNP out of it in Maryborough, I can't get the LNP to above 44.  A Labor majority requires wins in four of the six listed, but a Labor government does not require that many - Peter Wellington at least would very likely support them.

9:22 A few seats called by the ABC earlier are indeed coming back so only 40 are now in the safe list. In the absolute worst case that the LNP won all the lineballs, the LNP would actually just win the election outright with 46 seats.  That's not likely though; while an individual seat on 1-2% at the end of the night might switch in postcounting, it doesn't happen that all of them do.

9:13 The ABC is treating 42 seats as safe Labor wins and another four as ALP ahead, with the LNP doubtful in a couple.  I would not be calling some of these 42 just yet as those sitting on projected margins just over 2% with high percentages left to count could yet come back.  But it is looking that the LNP can't win outright and the question is whether Labor can.

9:00 One seat we may not know about for a while is Maryborough - it has a close ALP/LNP 2PP at present and an exclusion order issue with Chris Foley not far from making the final two on preferences.  But Labor are doing well enough that they may not even need this seat.

8:50 Astonishing results coming in now. Labor leading in enough seats to be a major chance of winning outright.

8:25 Labor seem to be going extremely well now.  They have 27 projected gains plus another five at least which have yet to reach the ABC's projection threshold.  An ALP seat tally in the low 40s is quite plausible from here and a hung parliament looks a very real possibility.  I'm about to escape from a noisy restaurant and hope to provide more focused comments soon.

8:15 Kallangur - a seat where betting odds were strangely positive for the ALP for no obvious reason - is currently showing a huge swing to Labor and being projected as a gain.  The general picture is looking increasingly positive for Labor.

7:55 Mirani is still showing as a Labor gain with a lot more in now.  This is not surprising because of the retirement of the sitting member and the lack of a sophomore effect from 2012.  Not much else to see yet except that the ALP primary is continuing to track upwards as the count becomes more representative.  With 40.11% to the LNP and 37.44% to Labor this is not looking like a blowout to the incumbents, at the least.

7:47 In Gympie the ABC is currently showing KAP leading on preferences.  To win they'll have to stay second on primaries which may well not happen even if they stay up there on 2PP.

7:40 LNP currently trailing in the key seat of Mirani but ABC yet to switch on booth matching there.  I'm about to have a brief dinner break.

7:30 Scratch that re Katter - those votes have mysteriously disappeared from the ECQ website and the votes now showing are far less conclusive.

7:25: Some early counting is coming in and it's from the usual small unrepresentative mostly rural locations.  But there is something of interest: Rob Katter off to a flier in Mount Isa.  Amusingly the ABC projects KAP to poll minus 3.3%.

7:10: ReachTEL's exit poll of Ashgrove concurs that Newman is gone: 47.7% to 40.8% and a 56-44 2PP.

Opening Post: Welcome to my Queensland election night comments.  I'm posting from Corinna on a commercial wifi that opened for business just a few days ago and cannot guarantee to retain connection throughout the night, but I'll see how it goes.  Don't expect a huge level of organisation in my commentary, which will flow with the newest updates posted at the top.  Refresh now and then.

To start with there's a Sky News Galaxy exit poll with an astonishing 54:46 result to Labor off primaries of ALP 39 LNP 38 Green 10.  The poll's Green vote is a little difficult to credit but it will be interesting to see if the exit poll's projection of an on-the-day swing to Labor plays out.  Generally exit polling is still a bit experimental in Australia. There is a less surprising 56:44 result against Campbell Newman in Ashgrove.

6 comments:

  1. Thanks for your work on this and everything electoral Kevin.

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  2. Excellent commentary as usual.

    Although it's not a drop for the Greens, is it? This looks like their best result ever in Queensland.

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  3. Great work, once again, Kevin! Thanks for going out of your way to get internet access in order to provide this liveblog, it's a great service and your observations are incredibly valuable.

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  4. By the looks of it, one of the most critical factors - one neatly explaining the disparity between polling numbers and the results - seems to be a major shift in preference flows from minor parties. By my calculations this accounted itself for a swing of approximately 2.8%.

    http://i.imgur.com/NYUURbH.png

    I wonder if perhaps that exit poll asked people how they had actually preferenced, which is why it leaned the way it did?

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    1. That looks about right to me - those primaries would have been about 51.5 by 2012 prefs.

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