Saturday, January 31, 2015

Queensland: Election Day Comments

Greetings from Corinna!  I don't have much time or much internet but it looks like I will be online tonight, but without access to any TV coverage.

All three polls overnight (ReachTEL, Newspoll and Galaxy) came out with a 52:48 2PP to the LNP so any polling aggregator is likely to have the LNP at something around that.  Mine has finished on 52.1% off primaries of 41.4% LNP, 37.1% ALP, 6.9% Green, 4.5% PUP, 9.7% Other. The important thing is not that 2PP figure but how you model it, and my projected seat tally has barely moved since the first polls after the campaign started showed slight LNP leads.  Out of the 82 major-party-held seats it expects the government to win the 2PP contest in about 48 and Labor in about 34.  Considering the crossbench seats Labor have good chances of two gains, while the LNP have probably as much risk as potential for gain.  (They might pick up Condamine and perhaps Gaven but are likely to lose Maryborough and at risk in a few others).  So I'm expecting something about 48 LNP, 36 Labor and five others.  



It's notable that BludgerTrack still has a higher seat tally (50) off a lower 2PP (51.6) than mine.  There's a lot more work I would have liked to have done on my projection model for this election but it does bear out that 52% 2PP, if polled, is likely to be enough, whatever anybody's uniform-swing no-sitting-member-effects pendulum might consider otherwise.

Regarding Campbell Newman in Ashgrove any view that he will still win has become an article of faith completely detached from any form of polling reality.  On recent figures it seems highly unlikely, and with a Newspoll netsat of -23, loss of his seat is probably the most painless way for the LNP to ease him out of the leadership.  In the near 30-year history of Newspoll no Premier so unpopular on election eve has led his or her party to victory.

There are enough uncertainties in the preference flow situation and the mapping of votes to seats that a hung parliament is quite possible; but so too is a more comfortable LNP victory than expected with a seat tally into the low-mid 50s.  And given the size of the expected swing there is more doubt than in, say, Victoria, about where exactly it will land.

I expect to have a few comments in a new thread this evening, but probably not very detailed, mainly just tracking how the count is travelling and any especially interesting seats.

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